Winter Thoughts
I’ve been meaning to post something for most of the winter, but I’ve just been too busy. Adjusting to the 9-to-5 grind while planning a wedding takes a lot out of you!
Anyways, I guess I have a bit to write about. First things first: Joe Mauer. I started to type up a post about how a large Mauer contract might not be good for the Twins, and how they might be able to put together a better team overall by spending that money on other players. But then I became too depressed and didn’t finish it (actually, I just ran out of time and forgot about it). As of right now, it sounds like Joe and his agent are in deep talks with Bill Smith and something will be finalized before spring training starts. Sure, it might end up being a lot of years for a catcher, but I think Joe Mauer is special enough to warrant it.
And then we have the infield situation. As of right now, second base will be manned by Punto/Casilla and third base will be covered by Harris/Punto. Prospect Danny Valencia is rumored to be close to MLB ready, and we could see him after the all-star break. I’m not so sure I’m as high on him as other fans are: 1) his defense seems to be average-to-good, but reports are conflicting 2) He has terrible plate discipline in AAA and strikes out a bit. I fear that will translate to a dismal MLB hitting line. However, there isn’t much out there that constitutes as a long term fix for the position. Had the Twins been able to get Kevin Kouzmanoff from the Padres (he’s since been traded to the A’s), he could had been a decent solution. The more I think about it though, he seems to have a pretty similar skill set to Valencia, and is more expensive. For now, I’m okay with giving Harris a shot at starting. He’s not a terrible hitter and might benefit from regular at bats.
At second, the Twins have been tied to free agent Orlando Hudson. I’m an advocate of a short-term deal with him. He’s getting a little long in the tooth, but we have Nick Punto ready to go in case something happens to Hudson. If the Twins do sign Orlando, however, that would probably mean Casilla is as good as gone. Casilla had some great minor league numbers up to and including the AA level. However, something has been lost in translation from AA to AAA and the majors. It’s sad to see raw talent like that not pan out.
Francisco Liriano. I call him “Franchise” when he’s doing well, and “‘Cisco” when he’s not. He’s been ‘Cisco for a while now, but that could change this season. Reports were coming out of the Dominican Republic that he was “throwing the living fire out of the ball” (thanks Gardy). I’m usually pretty skeptical of third hand evaluations like that (wasn’t he throwing in the mid-90’s before last season too?!?!) but many other bloggers watched the championship game in which he pitched and the consensus is that his monster slider is back. I’m cautiously optimistic, but how awesome would it be to have Franchise back to, or near, 2006 form? Yes Please.
Wow
That title just about covers how I feel: wow. As everyone knows by now, the Twins won the American League Central Pennant last night by beating the Detroit Tigers in 12 innings. Almost everyone came up big for the Twins, considering they used 12 position players and eight pitchers.
Scott Baker survived his trademark big inning to turn in a quality start; Jon Rauch continued to impress me with his late inning performances; Bobby Keppel is my new hero; Alexi Casilla (or Sexi Lexi, as I lovingly call him) was clutch for us AGAIN; GoGo made things happen; O-Cab came up big with a go ahead homer and a game saving double play; Punto took great at-bats and got himself on base; Kubel’s moon shot (or Kubes Shot, as I call it); Tolbert’s clutch game tying hit; Nathans fireman work; Mahay’s ownage of Granderson; Cuddy’s good at bats and good defense (for a right fielder, he’s pretty good at getting the tag down when he’s pulled up off the bag); Mauer being Mauer; Delmon scaring them into walking him; Crain, though he gave up a run, pitched well and had great stuff; oh man, I could keep going.
One thing that leaves a slightly sour taste in my mouth was the game had by home plate umpire Randy Marsh. He squeezed Matty G and Baker BAD: I counted 4-5 pitches that came in just below the waist and broke to about 3 inches above the knees, right in the center of the dish, called balls. Porcello was getting those, and Rodney’s pitches (even lower, I might add) were called strikes. I do have to say, though, Nathan did get a LOT of favorable calls which helped us greatly. However, the real source of the sourness was the missed “hit by pitch” call on Inge. Now, it just grazed his jersey and the bases were loaded: the umpire could have totally decided he wasn’t going to let the winning run score that way and that it was so close he could claim he missed it. I’m not saying that’s right, but it could have happened. More likely: it was so loud in the ‘Dome, he just couldn’t hear the hit. It happens, umps miss things like that, but I’m sure Tigers fans are still groaning about it today. And rightfully so.
Time to face the Yanks! With zero time to rest, the Comeback Twins must now find the energy to take on the monster that is the New York All-Star Tea… er.. Yankees. Sure, the Twins are 0-7 against them this year. Sure, the Yanks have the best offense money can buy. Sure, they also bought the two best pitchers available last winter. Who cares? This Twins team has been written off so many times, I can’t put anything past them anymore.
That being said, the pitching match-up isn’t very favorable: Duensing vs. Sabathia. We can only hope that Duensing can be craft enough to fool Yankees hitters who haven’t seen much of him and that Sabathia will continue to struggle in the playoffs. His TERRIBLE final start of the season either means he will have corrected his flaw and be tuned up for the post season, or that he’s fatigued and the Twins might be able to jump all over him. He has wrecked the Twins in the past, so we will have to see.
The Line-up for tonight’s game:
Span CF
Cabrera SS
Mauer C
Cuddyer 1B
Kubel RF
Young LF
Harris DH
Tolbert 3B
Punto 2B
I only have one problem with it: no Carlos Gomez. Jose Morales was schooled by Porcello last night (I think he swung and missed six times, striking out twice) so Harris will get the start instead. While that move by itself is rational and understandable, I would have rather seen Gomez in center, Span in left, Young in right and Kubel DHing. In my opinion, the benefit of having Gomez and Span in the outfield far outweighs the offensive bump obtained by having Harris DH. I shudder every time I think of Kubel and Young gimping and bumbling around at the corners. Gardy’s decisions have works so far, so LETS DO THIS!
I have to admit, it feels really weird to be here without Morneau in the line-up. It makes me a feel a little guilty: its pretty sad to see him sitting on the bench, unable to help his team. If the ‘Dome is going to crack the spine of our MVPs, maybe a couple rain outs will be tolerable after all.
Coming Up Short
Bag ‘em and tag ‘em. Stick a fork in them. The fat lady is singing. No flying pigs in sight.
Losing to Eddie Bonine and the Tigers last night was pretty much a nail in the coffin. Even if the Twins win tonight, the Tigers can clinch by only winning one more game (or the Twins losing one more for that matter). The revelation isn’t too crushing though; I’ve readied myself for their elimination for the past month. They are missing 60% of their rotation, their starting third baseman, their All-Star first baseman and Matt Tolbert is in the starting line-up. If that isn’t a recipe for elimination, I don’t know what is. Respect has to be paid, though, considering the run the team made during September. Gardenhire was able to keep winning with a massively flawed team, Bill Smith turned a freaking disaster into just a massively flawed team, and the players themselves never gave up. Not to mention that Cuddyer guy mashing the ball while filling in admirably at first base.
And as much as the Santana and Tampa trades are still stinging, Bill Smith did a pretty good job this year. His moves were shrewd but also added value: Mahay has been a good LOOGY, Rauch has been good and will be here next year, Pavano has been a big part of the stretch run and Orlando Cabrera has been average at short while being a good motivator in the clubhouse. (O-Cab hasn’t been great, but he improved the black hole in the two-hole) The Front Office has also been more aggressive at handing out bonuses to young talent. They went above the slot recommendation to land first round draft pick Kyle Gibson, who had the option of going back to college to regain top 5 money he lost when a stress fracture in his arm shortened his Junior season. Max Kepler-Rozycki, a top Euopean prospect, was signed for nearly $800,000. Jorge Polanco, a shortstop from the Dominican Republic, was also signed. And the big one: Miguel Angel Sano was signed for a record $3.1 million dollars. If someone told me the Twins would be setting the record for a bonus paid to a international position player (Cubans excluded), I probably would have laughed in their face.
I like the aggression because I think it’s informed and calculated aggression. After seemingly getting walked all over in the Santana debacle, Smith went toe-to-toe with Scott Boras and was able to sign Joe Crede to a frugal, incentive laden deal that has been proven to be a wise move. Kyle Gibson dropped from Top 5 status to pick #22 because of a stress fracture in his arm and the Twins scooped him up after checking his medical records. They were even nice enough to realize that he had more talent than most #22 picks and gave him more money than recommended for his draft placement. This not only got him to sign instead of going back to college to raise his value, it most likely made a good first impression with Gibson: the Twins knew his value and didn’t try to screw him out of his bonus.
And then there is the Sano signing: from reading several articles it looks like the Twins were able to sign Miguel out from under the nose of the Pirates because the Twins were much better at forming a relationship with the Dominican’s family and agent. They also shelled out $3.1 million dollars for the kid, which is refreshing. I even read an article that quoted owner Jim Pohlad saying that he encouraged the team to go out and sign Sano. A filthy rich owner encouraging the Team to spend money? Yes please.
What does all this mean?
Is Bill Smith getting the hang of being a General Manager? I agree that the Santana trade hasn’t worked out, and that the Delmon trade has been a disaster, but maybe they were instrumental to his development as a GM. After seeing Delmon fizzle it’s possible that he is now more cautious with his gambles, making sure he considers the risks as well as the potential benefits.
Is the front office trying to impress Joe Mauer? It’s not secret that the Twins need to lock up Mauer this off-season before he hits the open market. What better way to keep him there than a new ballpark and spending money on top-tier talent?
If Smith will shell out money for prospects, is he going to pick up the Mauer bill for six-to-eight more year? God, I hope so.
Will Billy carry this aggression over into the off-season? I’m not sure how much money will be left after a potential Mauer extension, but could he possibly make some high-reward free agents? I don’t mean signing all the best free agents available, like the Yankees seem to do, but I can see them giving Harden a shot. He’s an injury risk (or injury guarantee) but he’s nasty when healthy. I can also see them going after Pavano for a couple year deal; he seems to fit in nicely with the club and isn’t too shabby a pitcher.
That’s why I love this team: good baseball, good people and always interesting.
Twins news a year ago:
Twins fall in AL Central tiebreaker – How fitting.
1.0 GB!
Don’t look now, but the Twins are one whole game behind the Tigers after defeating Porcello, the Boy Wonder. Actually, they defeated Brandon Lyon, but that’s besides the point.
I haven’t been posting recently for two reasons:
1) I’ve been super busy
2) I don’t know how I feel about the Twins.
Yes they have been winning, but I feel like they are going to let me down at any time. It’s not because I’m a bad fan, it’s just that they aren’t supposed to be doing this well: They are missing Justin Morneau, Kubel is slumping, the rotation is a mess, Tolbert’s playing third, etc. I was waiting for the Twins to pull even or go ahead before I came out of hiding, but one game back is good enough.
This morning’s match-up was Porcello vs. Blackburn and it was a nail-biter. Both starters left with a 1 -1 tie but the Twins ended up scoring two in the top of the 10th inning after botching a suicide squeeze in the 9th (good job, Punto). Nathan came in a gave up a solo shot to Granderson but held on for the save.
Game 2 is tonight and it looks like the pitching match-up is going to be Brian Duensing vs. Justin Verlander. In my opinion, this is the most important game so far this year: if the Twins win, they are guaranteed at least a series split and make it much more likely that they take three of four. The “three of four” goal is pretty much the Twins only chance at a realistic shot at the post season. Being tied in the standings, Minnesota would just need to win more games than the Tigers to end the season. If they tie they force a one-game playoff in the Metrodome since they won the season series (no more of that ‘coin toss’ bullshit). A split means that the Tigers must lose two of three to the drowning White Sox and the Twins must win two of three in KC against the best pitcher in baseball and a streaking offense.
Hopefully the rain holds off and everyone is ready for Game Two!
Dear Tigers: Prepare to be Duensinged! GO TWINS!!!!!!!
Bullpen Reinforcements
It’s about time! The Twins acquired Jon Rauch and Ron Mahay from the Diamondback and Royals, respectively. While on the surface these don’t appear to be huge acquisitions, they do improve the overall quality of the bullpen: addition by subtraction, if you will. This means that two relievers from AAA are on their way out and I can’t really complain about that.
Rauch was had for a PTBNL, but I’m hoping it’s not a important prospect. He does have a team option for next year for a little under $3 million, so he might be returning in 2010 depending on how he does this season, and if he gets along with the rest of the team. He hasn’t exactly been a strike-out machine like you’d expect from someone who is pushing seven-foot-tall, but he has had decent control. He used to be a starter before injuries forced him into the bullpen; would the Twins do something crazy like convert him back into a starter? I doubt it, but that means the Twins are still looking for Starting Rotation help.
UPDATE: I just read that Philip Humber has been outrighted to Rochester to make room for Rauch on the 40-man roster.
Mahay is a 38-year-old veteran lefty and I’m not sure yet what the Twins gave up for him. I’m sure it’s not much since Mahay had been DFA’s by the Royals. Hopefully he will be used as a left-handed specialist since he has some pretty terrible numbers against right handed hitters this season. As a veteran in the last year of his contract, there is probably a zero percent chance of him being with the team next season. This is purely a rental.
Overall, depending on who was sent to Arizona for Rauch, I like these trades. Nothing flashy, just average players to give the team depth. One of the problems the Twins have had this year is that they have a group of excellent players on the roster but the front office has struggled to supply a competent supporting cast. It’s too bad this didn’t happen earlier in the season.
However, the Twins still need at least one more veteran starter in the rotation. It’s pretty alarming when the fourth and fifth starters are emergency call-ups from Rochester (especially when one isn’t really a starter yet, having only made four starts in the minors this year). Rumor has it that the Twins claimed Rich Harden and may have interest in Brad Penny. Harden would be really nice, but I’m not too keen on giving up Type A prospects to rent him for five starts, draft-pick compensation be damned. Only if they were somehow able to work out an extension with Harden would I give up substantial talent. Though, with his injury history, would it even be prudent to give up talent and extend him? Penny is an interesting option; he was a good pitcher with the Marlins in 2003 and with the Dodgers, but has had shoulder problems and has looked rusty this season. Penny would be another “addition by subtraction” since they’d get to bump one of the struggling youngsters from the rotation.
Here’s an evaluation of the two reliever’s possible contribution from The Tenth Inning Stretch: http://tenthinningstretch.blogspot.com/2009/08/how-does-john-rauch-fit-in-twins.html
Getting Ready for 2010: First Base
Continuing my roster planning for the 2010 season, I’ll be talking about first base today. Again, this is a pretty easy one.
Starter: Justin Morenau
The Canadian Iron Man should be starting at sack number one next year for the Twins. He hits for average and power and as been slowly adding patience to his arsenal. In his MVP year he walked 53 times, 64 the next season, and 76 last year. This year he’s at 64 walks already. He’s also having a year similar (or maybe even better) than his MVP season, perhaps because of Kubel and Cuddyer behind him (and both are healthy). There really isn’t much to say: the man won an MVP award. He starts.
I’m not going to talk about back-up options yet since I’m saving that for when I cover the bench positions. So far this year we’ve seen Cuddyer, Harris and Buscher getting starts at first and I’ve personally seen Cuddyer make a few nice plays. Considering the 2009 backups are available for 2010, I’d say the Twins are set for this position.
Rochester Red Wings – 8/25/09
I attended the Rochester Red Wings game last night and was treated to a 11-5 shellacking at the hands of the Norfolk Tides. (Rochester is the Twins AAA Affiliate, for those who did not know) Anthony Swarzak started the game and was hit hard the entire night. In the top of the second, the first six batters he faced reached base, with the first five scoring. If you just looked at a box score, it would appear that he made it through the other innings fairly quickly, only giving up one more run. However, most of the outs came on long fly balls to the warning track and sharply hit line drives right at people. I also noticed that his body language was decidedly negative, leading me to wonder if he’s ‘pouting’ over his demotion and lack of success in the Majors. I remember that he had that issue when he was in AA New Britain, but was very good and seemed focused after getting called up to AAA.
Due to the fact that the Wings were behind by a lot the whole game, I didn’t get to see Slama, Delaney or Morillo. Of anyone in the Rochester bullpen, those three guys have the potential to help out at the major league level in the immediate future. I’m hoping to catch another game or two before the end of the season, so I still might get a chance to see one of them pitch.
Getting Ready for 2010: Catcher
Even though the Tigers and White Sox are nice enough (or cruel enough) to let the Twins’ playoff dreams linger, there is no way this club is a playoff caliber team. Say the Sox and Tigers tank the rest of the season: what are the pitching match-ups for the ALDS? Baker vs. Sabathia, Pavano vs. Burnett, Blackburn vs. Chamberlain? No thanks. I could talk about this season’s playoff chase, or how the Twins can improve themselves this year, but I think talking about next season would be a better use of energy. The only thing really worth blogging about in 2009 is Joe Mauer, but I’m going to wait a little longer before writing my blog entry that will crown him Albert Pujols Jr.
The 2010 season will be an interesting one for the Twins; they are opening a new ballpark and will need to decide what to do with the best catcher in the league. Oh yeah, they also need to decide who is going to accompany Justin Morneau in the infield. Right now the only ‘locks’ are Nick Punto and Alexi Casilla (typing that just caused chills down my spine) with third base being a question mark. And they currently have 17 outfielders that need consistent playing time. I’m going to go through each position and see if I can piece together a roster that sucks a little less than the 2009 Twins.
Catcher:
Starter: Joe Mauer
I’m going to start with an easy one. Joe Mauer. Done.
Assuming he doesn’t come down with another freaky injury, Joe Mauer will be the starting Catcher for the Minnesota Twins in 2010. Does anyone else get excited thinking about Joe winning four straight batting titles? Or two straight MVPs? Even if he doesn’t have a season as incredible as 2009, he will still be one of the best hitting catchers in the league. We can safely say that the Twins do not have a hole at this position for 2010.
Back-up: Jose Morales
Sorry Mike Redmond but you’re done. I really like Redmond but I don’t think he can cut it anymore. If he did manage get his average back over .300, he’d still be a defensive liability because of his age. Morales is young and still learning the position, with room for improvement. He’s also a switch hitter that can hit for average: no need to worry about match-ups when Joe needs a day off. He seemed to do okay with inconsistent playing time so he’ll probably be fine in a back-up role. However, the Twins could also think outside the box and trade him to a team that needs a young starting catcher and sign a veteran backstop instead. (Someone a little younger than Redmond maybe?) I like the kid though, so I say we keep him. If he really is a .300-ish hitter, he’d be good insurance if Mauer ever goes down (knock on wood!!).
My next entry will cover first base. Another tough one!
WTF?
I don’t get it: Why are the Twins’ starters sucking so much? The organization is famous for developing pitching talent but for some reason the talent has gone sour this year. All of it. I’ve seen several blogs analyzing the pitchers’ starts and they notice that release point inconsistencies tend to correlate with ineffectiveness. You’d think Rick Anderson would help the staff correct this, or help them with something. Whatever he’s doing, it’s not working and it’s starting to get a bit ridiculous.
I mean, I could understand if the starters were just scuffling a bit (maybe something like 5 runs over 5 1/3 innings) but they are getting absolutely shelled. If they don’t get it together by the end of this week, the grave the are digging may be too deep to crawl out of.
I’ve said before that I liked that the Twins went with the young rotation this year. However, it’s very apparent that the Twins don’t have an “Ace” pitcher to be a ’stopper’ for losing streaks. They need a guy to go out after the young guys get shelled three games in a row and say “See, this is how you do”. Maybe Pavano can do that, but I don’t think he has it in him to really be the leader they need. Maybe the Twins can do something crazy this off season and sign a top of the rotation starter. I’m sure Mauer wouldn’t mind…
Another thing: where did all the fun go? It seems the players have been tense for a while now; Are they having some kind of personality conflicts? Nathan, Morneau and Mauer were complaining at the deadline. Redmond was hinting that Gardenhire is misusing him by starting him against righties (makes sense to me). Is this a sign that the players have lost respect for the front office or the coaching staff?
Nobody seems to be having a good time anymore, so I think it’s time for some naked batting practice.
Twins News Today:
Perkins lands on DL with tendinitis – I actually just found out about this and haven’t read the article yet. It’ll be interesting to see if Gardy throws Perkins under the bus for being a wimp.
One year ago today:
Perkins’ gem vaults Twins back into first – For some reason I don’t think we’ll be seeing this headline in 2009…
Update:
Just read La Velle’s blog and some quotes from Blackburn really burned me up (no pun intended):
“Everything feels great. I think right now, my pitches are a little flat and up and we just have to figure out what it is.”
“Some sort of adjustment needs to be made”
“Something mechanically I have to deal with right now.”
Isn’t all of that in Rick Anderson’s job description?? If my performance at work was this terrible, I’d be scouring the classifieds.
Help on the Way?
The Twins recently added starting pitching Carl Pavano to their starting rotation, acquiring him from the Indians for a player-to-be-named-later. I wasn’t too thrilled when I first heard about it, but then again Pavano is only 33-years-old and can be good at times. Oh yeah, and he has dominated the White Sox and Tigers this year. For whatever reason our five young starters have regressed this year, causing the Twins to be 10th in the league in pitching. Maybe the front office knew what they were doing when they signed a veteran retreads… Hopefully the presence of Pavano will help take the pressure off some of the young guys. Based on his history with the Yanks, I don’t expect him to be a huge clubhouse leader or anything, but hopefully just having an extra steady arm in the rotation will help the team.
However, I don’t think one new pitcher is enough. The Twins are still going to need at least another starter, or another reliever (or both!) to be competitive this year. The pickings this time of year are slim, but I’m sure Bill Smith can find someone who will implode less often than Swarzak and Liriano have been. Idea: John Smoltz. I heard he was DFA’d by the Red Sox after eight starts. He hasn’t been terribly good this year, but looking at some of his number I think the Twins should give him a chance at an extended tryout. His K/9 and K/BB rate look pretty good to me, plus he has experience in the bullpen. I also thing he could provide the veteran leadership that Pavano probably isn’t capable of, not to mention his plethora of playoff experience. Perhaps he can even teach one of the young starters that nasty splitter that he has. (Side note: is it just me or do all the Twins pitchers pretty much have the same arsenal of pitches? It seems like the organization has a cookie-cutter pattern they use to develop their starters: Fastball, Curve/Slider, Change-up, Cutter/Sinker. Why don’t they have anyone that throws something neat like a splitter, or knuckle-curve, or fork-ball, or palm-ball, or screw-ball? I’m partially kidding, but partially serious as well…)
The rest of the season will depend on the pitching. The Twins finally have an offense that scores runs, now they just need to make sure they give up less runs than they score. Gardy seems to think that the front office is heavily shopping for pitching help. Hopefully he’s right.