The Young and the LaRoche
Hmm, it was worth a try. It’s my first post in a while, so I’ll leave the title alone for now.
I wanted to post to say how awesome Delmon Young has been this season. His triple slash numbers for .295/.333/.500 are only up slightly from his rookie year with Tampa (.317/.336/.476) but that doesn’t mean Delmon hasn’t ‘turned the corner’ in 2010:
Exhibit A: 1.57 K/BB
What is this? A decent strikeout to walk ratio?? Last year, his rate was 7.67 K/BB – that’s about an 80% improvement! He has pretty much halved his strikeouts, and almost doubled his walk rate.
Exhibit B: 11.0 EBH% (Percentage of plate appearances resulting in an extra-base hit)
Delmon’s new selectivity has led to an increase in power, from an Isolated Power of .142 in 2009, to a .205 mark this season. For the record, Joe Mauer has an ISO of .129 and a 9.2 EBH% so far this season. (To be fair, a ton of Mauer’s plate appearances end in walks).
The title of this post also mentions a LaRoche, Andy LaRoche specifically. The Pirates just called up prized prospect Pedro Alvarez to play third base, and LaRoche no longer has a position to play. My thinking is: how about the Twins try to acquire LaRoche instead of the carcass of Mike Lowell? LaRoche is younger and was once Baseball’s #19 best prospect. He could take the place of Brendan Harris on the roster, and could either serve the same purpose as Harris or start at third. If Gardenhire decides he wants to start LaRoche at third, Valencia should be sent back to Rochester to play every day. It looks like LaRoche is nearing arbitration, so the Twins would be able to non-tender him after this season if he doesn’t work out.
I guess it all depends how ‘out of favor’ LaRoche is in Pittsburgh. If they still think he has untapped potential, they might be asking more than the Red Sox will ask for Lowell. If they are willing to give him up for a mid-level prospect or two, I say the Twins should give him a try.
Uh oh….
I was a bit busy this weekend, so I didn’t really keep up with Twins’ news. I skim my RSS feed today to learn that Mijares is on the DL with elbow soreness (I was wondering what Burnett was doing back in the majors) and Neshek is out of commission for a few days with a middle finger issue. To top is off, Blackburn is also complaining about elbow soreness. Elbow soreness = bad news.
Like I said earlier in the year, it’ll be injuries that will bring the Twins down in 2010. If, God forbid, Blackburn is sidelined for the year, do the Twins go out and splurge on Washburn and hope for the best? Personally, I think either Duensing or Perkins could pitch as well as Washburn can at this point.
Luckily, the offense is still clicking and Baker, Slowey and Liriano seem to be anchoring the starting rotation. As long as they have that going for them, the Twins should be okay.
WPA Heroes – Week 1
So I decided to track the Win Probability Added (WPA) for each of the Twin’s players during the week. If you’re not familiar with this statistic, here’s a decent explanation. Basically, each situation (ie. bottom of the 8th, game tied, two outs, runner on second) is assigned a win probability. Batters and pitchers gain (positive or negative) WPA values depending on how they perform in situations. A player comes up big in a critical situation? Their WPA goes up a lot. A batter strikes out with bases loaded in a tie game? Their WPA goes down a lot. At least I’m pretty sure that’s how it works. I’m pretty new to the stat, so I could be way off base. Regardless, I still find it neat.
Baseball-Reference.com keeps track of each player’s WPA for every game (logged in each game’s boxscore). I’m going to try to go through the box scores every week and find the Twins player who contributed the most (the clutchiest player?), and the player who had the lowest WPA value (the choker?)
WPA Hero of Week 1:
CL | Jon Rauch: +0.592
The Twin’s new closer had a great first week of the season, saving four games in four tries and putting up a nice 2.25 ERA. Of course, he’s no Joe Nathan – hitters batted .313 against Rauch in week one – but he’s been getting the job done. I guess this shows that teams don’t necessarily need to break the bank for a “lights out” closer. Then again, I’m sure I’ll be crying for Nathan after a couple of consecutive Rauch melt-downs.
WPA Dead Weight of Week 1:
2B | Orlando Hudson: -0.510
The top of the Twins line-up has gotten off to a bit of a slow start here in 2010. Not that I’m worried, though – I don’t expect Span and Hudson to struggle like this for long. To take the “glass-half-full” approach, if the Twins were able to win both series against two play-off hopeful teams with the line-up not firing on all cylinders, imagine the carnage that will result when all eight or nine guys are hitting well at the same time.
Everyone Else:
Guess which Twins batter accumulated the highest WPA in week one? Did you guess Joe Mauer? If you did, you’re wrong. It was none other than Nick Punto’s side-kick: Brendan Harris! Sure, he only hit .111 on the week, but his two-run homer against the Angels on April 8th was worth only slightly less than Mauer’s ENTIRE WEEK (0.228 vs 0.248). Justin Morneau actually owned the second highest WPA for batters (0.295), and Matt Guerrier’s 0.505 WPA looks spiffy. If Rauch and Guerrier can keep up their week 1 success, they will be a pretty effective back-end of the bullpen.
Twins News one year ago today: Twins offense strong but falls to Jays
I thought this news story was appropriate, considering the Crain-wreck in Minnesota this afternoon.
Jason Who?
Just thought I’d share this:
Hint: That is not Jason Kubel
Runs!
I want to start off by thanking Topper from Curve For A Strike for the “Twins Bloggers: Get to Know ‘Em” piece he did for this blog. I’ve actually found a bunch of Twins blogs that I hadn’t heard of before by following Topper’s site. Many of those blogs are now in my daily RSS feed.
Since I’m now a working stiff, I was lame and fell asleep at 9:30 last night. Needless to say, it was a pleasant surprise this morning when I checked the score from last night and saw that the Twins CRUSHED the Angels. I could get used to a line-up that leads the league in home runs! The thing that gets me excited is that all but three of the home runs have come from somebody NOT named Mauer, Kubel, Morneau, or Cuddyer. If you think about it, the Twins could easily be 2-2 or 1-3 if the bottom of the order resembled years past. But it doesn’t!
Imagine if J.J. Hardy gets back to hitting 20+ home runs and Delmon lives up to his power potential? I mean, even if the bottom of the order can’t keep this up all season, Hudson, Kubel and Span cant be this bad for too much longer. And if the bottom of the order can stay hot when the big bats come alive? I think we’ll be seeing more 10 run games against play-off caliber teams. They might even win a game against the Yankees!!
Twins News one year ago today: Twins’ Gomez in growth process at plate
Does anyone miss Go-Go as much as I do? He wasn’t a great hitter (and his departure is probably why the bottom of the order is good this year) but he brought a ton of excitement and personality to the team. I’m hoping he has a breakout year with the Brewers.
Pavano
Each time I see this guy pitch in 2010, I like the signing more and more. We always joke that the Twins will stop at nothing to ensure that there is a veteran presence in the starting rotation (see: Hernandez, Livan). This time, though, I think they might have done it right. Sure, the fact that they payed three or four million more than they usually allot for their ‘veteran pitcher of the year’ probably has something to do with it, but I think it’ll be worth it.
I don’t see Pavano as a top of the rotation guy, but he’s looking a little more like “Florida Marlins Pavano” than “Bruised Buttocks Pavano”. He’ll have some games where nothing’s working and he gets hammered, but he will also turn out some games like the gem he pitched last night. (I think I just fell in love with Baseball-Reference’s box scores.)
Both my fiancee and my roommate are huge Yankees fans, so I’ve been conditioned to think of Pavano as a selfish, fragile piece of garbage (to put it nicely). In Minnesota, he’s been everything but. If I were to guess, I’d say he feels more comfortable with the Twins than he did in New York; it’s possible he just cracked under the pressure of being Yankee. I predict that he will have a solid year and come up big when we need him.
I have always believed that a team needs three pitchers to come up big for them in the post season for them to have any chance at the Series. Pavano and Blackburn might not have the best stuff of the staff, but I definitely think they have the mentality to be the Twins “Big Game” pitchers. Couple them with a confident and nasty Liriano, I think the rotation might be in good shape. Call me crazy, but I’d feel pretty confident going against the Yankees in the ALDS with a rotation of Pavano, Liriano, Blackburn. Baker and Slowey have great command and can miss some bats, but I’m not sure if they can be solid in the playoffs. They are both fly-ball heavy pitchers, and fly-balls tend to turn into home runs when facing the best teams in the league.
Twins News one year ago today: Mauer making strides in recovery for Twins
Imagine how many more games they can win with a full season of Mauer and middle infielders that can actually hit.
Opening Day!
Well, that was a little bit of a let down. Baker was his normal terrible and wild early-season self, and the big bats were pretty quiet. Denard Span looked especially bad, with three strikeouts, but Joe Mauer also looked like he wasn’t his normal patient self. Hopefully it was all opening day nerves, and the boys will be back to normal soon.
On a positive note, Pat Neshek and Jesse Crain looked pretty good last night and both had wicked sliders working. It’ll be important for those two to keep up the good work with Nathan down and out. I see that Rauch was named the official Closer, and I’m okay with that. Pat Neshek might end up being the better choice once he’s 100%, but I think it’s a good idea to pick one guy to start as the closer. Everyone will know their role and it won’t really disrupt anyone’s preparation routines.
I was also impressed by Delmon Young. It was exciting to see him turn on an inside fastball and crush it to left field. Add in a little speed (infield single and stolen base) and not looking too goofy out in left field and it looks like we might be getting closer to the guy Bill Smith thought he traded for. I hope Gardy gives him a pretty long leash this season so that he can get his confidence back.
I also want to give a shout-out to my favorite ex-Twins: Garrett Jones and Carlos Gomez. Go-Go was 3-4 with a home run for the Brew Crew, and Jones mashes two homers for the Pirates (one which ended up in the Allegheny!)
2010 Predictions
It’s prediction day! Here’s my predictions for the 2010 season:
Twins-Specific Predictions
Twins MVP: Jason Kubel – I’m predicting he figures out lefties and gets his average well above .300
Twins Top Pitcher: Francisco Liriano – The Franchise is back!
Twins Best Rookie: Wilson Ramos – I’m going to predict Gardy gets his wish and Ramos plays a good chunk of the season in Minnesota after raking in Rochester during the spring months
Twins Most Improved Player: Delmon Young – I’m going to say his streamlined mechanics help him make more contact
Bold Predictions: Anthony Slama is closing games in September
A.L. Central Prediction :
- Minnesota
- Chicago
- Detroit
- Kansas City
- Cleveland
Three Keys to Success for the Twins: Health. They can’t really afford to lose more than one starting pitcher for a significant amount of time.
Rest of the League Predictions
A.L. MVP: Mark Teixeira, NYY
N.L. MVP: Albert Pujols, STL
A.L. Cy Young: Zack Greinke, KC
N.L. Cy Young: Adam Wainwright, STL
A.L. Rookie of the Year: Brian Matusz, BAL
N.L. Rookie of the Year: Alcides Escobar, MIL
A.L. Breakout Player of the Year: Travis Snider, TOR
N.L. Breakout Player of the Year: Carlos Gomez, MIL
A.L. Comeback Player of the Year: Dontrelle Willis, DET
N.L. Comeback Player of the Year: Jose Reyes, NYM
A.L. Playoff Predictions:
- ALDS – Twins over Yankees, Rangers over Red Sox
- ALCS – Twins over Rangers
N.L. Playoff Predictions:
- NLDS – Braves over Giants, Cardinals over Phillies
- NLCS – Braves over Cards
World Series Prediction:
- Twins over Braves in seven.
Roster Announced
And there you have it. Looks good to me. The only bad news is that I won’t be able to see Pat Neshek pitch for Rochester in April, but I’m happy with him helping the parent club too. I DO get to see Ramos, however. While it would have been neat to see what he can do at the major league level, it probably IS better for his development if he starts some games in the minors.
To tie in with my post about depth yesterday, I’d actually like to see the Twins hang on to Ramos for as long as they can keep him on the cheap. Sure, they could trade him in a package for a starting pitcher, or even a new closer (but what a waste that would be), but I would definitely feel better if he were to stick around as a C/DH for three years. I’m betting they could also teach him to play first base so that he might be able to fill in for Morneau. Also, Kubel’s contract is up in a couple of years (2012, I think*) and it would be nice to have Ramos and Mauer split time at DH and catcher for four or five years if the Twins can’t afford to keep Kubel around. And if, God forbid, anything happens to Mauer, I think there will be less of an offensive drop-off from Mauer to Ramos than Mauer to Morales/Butera (eww).
*So the world ends when Kubel leaves the Twins? I guess that’s how it should be.
I do feel sorry for Glen Perkins – he must be extremely frustrated. He can’t really blame anyone but himself this spring and I think if he starts getting things together in Rochester he’ll either be traded to someone who has a major league roster spot, or he’ll be the first pitcher to get called up to the Twins.
Twins News one year ago today: Morneau, Cuddyer among scratches
Morneau was having back issues before the season even started last season? That’s interesting, considering his recent issues. I thought it silly that people were still worried about Justin’s back. Not so silly anymore. (Though worrying about a guy who broke his back last season should never be silly)
The Weakest Link
Earlier today over at Fanatic Jack Talks Twins, I read that Jack believes that the bullpen will be the biggest weakness for the 2010 Twins. While I agree the situation is a little dicey without Joe Nathan, I don’t think the bullpen is the Twins biggest concern. In my opinion, lack of depth will end up being the team’s biggest problem in 2010. We’re a Slowey wrist flare-up away from Duensing, Manship or Swarzak pitching every five days. While I think those guys are decent stop gap options, or long relievers, I don’t really expect any of them to have a future in Minnesota’s starting rotation.
To compound the issue, Glen Perkins is currently hurting again. I think he has more upside than the other three but seems to be on the verge of being run out of town. Liriano has looked promising this winter and spring, but he’s still a headcase and hasn’t really been right since his UCL popped in 2006. Baker has had shoulder problems, and we all know Pavano’s story. I’m thinking the Twins are done for if they lose any more than one starting pitcher to injury. The next wave of starting pitching prospects seems to be just reaching AA, so it will probably be another year or two until they are viable contingency plans.
And then there is the whole outfield situation. Does anyone want to imagine a season where Span goes down for the year in April? If spring training means anything, Ben Revere would be next in line as a legitimate center fielder. He hasn’t even played a single game in AA yet. Jacques Jones might be their ace in the hole, but I don’t think he can even come close to his 2007 numbers anymore. Right now, I think only Danny Valencia and Wilson Ramos can provide any kind of legitimate insurance for a play-off hopeful Twins. But if Ramos is called up to start, that means Joe Mauer is gone. Danny Valencia could probably hold his own as a starter, but luckily they have Harris AND Punto for third base. Those two are pretty much Minnesota’s last line of defense – I think they are really the only players on the roster who would be able to be an adequate full time starter. If Casilla reverts back to ‘First Half 2008 Casilla’, then great. But I’m not counting on it, and neither should the Twins.
As for the bullpen: Slama and Delaney are now a phone call away if the Twins need an impact arm. I don’t expect them to close, but I think they can give some above average innings in some tight spots. Perkins has also pitched decently out of the ‘pen before, and is left handed. Not to mention the AAA starters I mentioned earlier. And if they are dipping much below Slama, Delaney, Mahay, and Perkins, it’s probably safe to say no team could survive with a bullpen decimated that badly. Honestly, I’d trust Swarzak and Manship a lot more in short relief than I would starting.
Some people view any player that is ‘replacement level’ to be adequate depth. However, serious contenders need something better. If you look at many of the good teams from 2008 or 2009, their injury replacements were often prospects that projected to be major league starters. For example:the Yankees had Phil Hughes ready to slide into the rotation (man, the Yankees were pretty lucky on the injury front last season); Boston had Clay Buchholz waiting in the wings; The Rays had Reid Brignac; Colby Rasmus gave the Cardinals a comfortable back up option.
I’m not saying the Twins need to have all of their top prospects ready to contribute yesterday. I just think they might be in a little trouble if the injury bug hits in 2010.
Twins News one year ago today: Perkins rock solid as Twins beat Rays
Ah, yes. Wasn’t Glen Perkins good last year at one point? Boy, that escalated quickly… I mean, that really got out of hand fast.