The Young and the LaRoche
Hmm, it was worth a try. It’s my first post in a while, so I’ll leave the title alone for now.
I wanted to post to say how awesome Delmon Young has been this season. His triple slash numbers for .295/.333/.500 are only up slightly from his rookie year with Tampa (.317/.336/.476) but that doesn’t mean Delmon hasn’t ‘turned the corner’ in 2010:
Exhibit A: 1.57 K/BB
What is this? A decent strikeout to walk ratio?? Last year, his rate was 7.67 K/BB – that’s about an 80% improvement! He has pretty much halved his strikeouts, and almost doubled his walk rate.
Exhibit B: 11.0 EBH% (Percentage of plate appearances resulting in an extra-base hit)
Delmon’s new selectivity has led to an increase in power, from an Isolated Power of .142 in 2009, to a .205 mark this season. For the record, Joe Mauer has an ISO of .129 and a 9.2 EBH% so far this season. (To be fair, a ton of Mauer’s plate appearances end in walks).
The title of this post also mentions a LaRoche, Andy LaRoche specifically. The Pirates just called up prized prospect Pedro Alvarez to play third base, and LaRoche no longer has a position to play. My thinking is: how about the Twins try to acquire LaRoche instead of the carcass of Mike Lowell? LaRoche is younger and was once Baseball’s #19 best prospect. He could take the place of Brendan Harris on the roster, and could either serve the same purpose as Harris or start at third. If Gardenhire decides he wants to start LaRoche at third, Valencia should be sent back to Rochester to play every day. It looks like LaRoche is nearing arbitration, so the Twins would be able to non-tender him after this season if he doesn’t work out.
I guess it all depends how ‘out of favor’ LaRoche is in Pittsburgh. If they still think he has untapped potential, they might be asking more than the Red Sox will ask for Lowell. If they are willing to give him up for a mid-level prospect or two, I say the Twins should give him a try.
WPA Heroes – Week 1
So I decided to track the Win Probability Added (WPA) for each of the Twin’s players during the week. If you’re not familiar with this statistic, here’s a decent explanation. Basically, each situation (ie. bottom of the 8th, game tied, two outs, runner on second) is assigned a win probability. Batters and pitchers gain (positive or negative) WPA values depending on how they perform in situations. A player comes up big in a critical situation? Their WPA goes up a lot. A batter strikes out with bases loaded in a tie game? Their WPA goes down a lot. At least I’m pretty sure that’s how it works. I’m pretty new to the stat, so I could be way off base. Regardless, I still find it neat.
Baseball-Reference.com keeps track of each player’s WPA for every game (logged in each game’s boxscore). I’m going to try to go through the box scores every week and find the Twins player who contributed the most (the clutchiest player?), and the player who had the lowest WPA value (the choker?)
WPA Hero of Week 1:
CL | Jon Rauch: +0.592
The Twin’s new closer had a great first week of the season, saving four games in four tries and putting up a nice 2.25 ERA. Of course, he’s no Joe Nathan – hitters batted .313 against Rauch in week one – but he’s been getting the job done. I guess this shows that teams don’t necessarily need to break the bank for a “lights out” closer. Then again, I’m sure I’ll be crying for Nathan after a couple of consecutive Rauch melt-downs.
WPA Dead Weight of Week 1:
2B | Orlando Hudson: -0.510
The top of the Twins line-up has gotten off to a bit of a slow start here in 2010. Not that I’m worried, though – I don’t expect Span and Hudson to struggle like this for long. To take the “glass-half-full” approach, if the Twins were able to win both series against two play-off hopeful teams with the line-up not firing on all cylinders, imagine the carnage that will result when all eight or nine guys are hitting well at the same time.
Everyone Else:
Guess which Twins batter accumulated the highest WPA in week one? Did you guess Joe Mauer? If you did, you’re wrong. It was none other than Nick Punto’s side-kick: Brendan Harris! Sure, he only hit .111 on the week, but his two-run homer against the Angels on April 8th was worth only slightly less than Mauer’s ENTIRE WEEK (0.228 vs 0.248). Justin Morneau actually owned the second highest WPA for batters (0.295), and Matt Guerrier’s 0.505 WPA looks spiffy. If Rauch and Guerrier can keep up their week 1 success, they will be a pretty effective back-end of the bullpen.
Twins News one year ago today: Twins offense strong but falls to Jays
I thought this news story was appropriate, considering the Crain-wreck in Minnesota this afternoon.
Pavano
Each time I see this guy pitch in 2010, I like the signing more and more. We always joke that the Twins will stop at nothing to ensure that there is a veteran presence in the starting rotation (see: Hernandez, Livan). This time, though, I think they might have done it right. Sure, the fact that they payed three or four million more than they usually allot for their ‘veteran pitcher of the year’ probably has something to do with it, but I think it’ll be worth it.
I don’t see Pavano as a top of the rotation guy, but he’s looking a little more like “Florida Marlins Pavano” than “Bruised Buttocks Pavano”. He’ll have some games where nothing’s working and he gets hammered, but he will also turn out some games like the gem he pitched last night. (I think I just fell in love with Baseball-Reference’s box scores.)
Both my fiancee and my roommate are huge Yankees fans, so I’ve been conditioned to think of Pavano as a selfish, fragile piece of garbage (to put it nicely). In Minnesota, he’s been everything but. If I were to guess, I’d say he feels more comfortable with the Twins than he did in New York; it’s possible he just cracked under the pressure of being Yankee. I predict that he will have a solid year and come up big when we need him.
I have always believed that a team needs three pitchers to come up big for them in the post season for them to have any chance at the Series. Pavano and Blackburn might not have the best stuff of the staff, but I definitely think they have the mentality to be the Twins “Big Game” pitchers. Couple them with a confident and nasty Liriano, I think the rotation might be in good shape. Call me crazy, but I’d feel pretty confident going against the Yankees in the ALDS with a rotation of Pavano, Liriano, Blackburn. Baker and Slowey have great command and can miss some bats, but I’m not sure if they can be solid in the playoffs. They are both fly-ball heavy pitchers, and fly-balls tend to turn into home runs when facing the best teams in the league.
Twins News one year ago today: Mauer making strides in recovery for Twins
Imagine how many more games they can win with a full season of Mauer and middle infielders that can actually hit.
Roster Announced
And there you have it. Looks good to me. The only bad news is that I won’t be able to see Pat Neshek pitch for Rochester in April, but I’m happy with him helping the parent club too. I DO get to see Ramos, however. While it would have been neat to see what he can do at the major league level, it probably IS better for his development if he starts some games in the minors.
To tie in with my post about depth yesterday, I’d actually like to see the Twins hang on to Ramos for as long as they can keep him on the cheap. Sure, they could trade him in a package for a starting pitcher, or even a new closer (but what a waste that would be), but I would definitely feel better if he were to stick around as a C/DH for three years. I’m betting they could also teach him to play first base so that he might be able to fill in for Morneau. Also, Kubel’s contract is up in a couple of years (2012, I think*) and it would be nice to have Ramos and Mauer split time at DH and catcher for four or five years if the Twins can’t afford to keep Kubel around. And if, God forbid, anything happens to Mauer, I think there will be less of an offensive drop-off from Mauer to Ramos than Mauer to Morales/Butera (eww).
*So the world ends when Kubel leaves the Twins? I guess that’s how it should be.
I do feel sorry for Glen Perkins – he must be extremely frustrated. He can’t really blame anyone but himself this spring and I think if he starts getting things together in Rochester he’ll either be traded to someone who has a major league roster spot, or he’ll be the first pitcher to get called up to the Twins.
Twins News one year ago today: Morneau, Cuddyer among scratches
Morneau was having back issues before the season even started last season? That’s interesting, considering his recent issues. I thought it silly that people were still worried about Justin’s back. Not so silly anymore. (Though worrying about a guy who broke his back last season should never be silly)
The Weakest Link
Earlier today over at Fanatic Jack Talks Twins, I read that Jack believes that the bullpen will be the biggest weakness for the 2010 Twins. While I agree the situation is a little dicey without Joe Nathan, I don’t think the bullpen is the Twins biggest concern. In my opinion, lack of depth will end up being the team’s biggest problem in 2010. We’re a Slowey wrist flare-up away from Duensing, Manship or Swarzak pitching every five days. While I think those guys are decent stop gap options, or long relievers, I don’t really expect any of them to have a future in Minnesota’s starting rotation.
To compound the issue, Glen Perkins is currently hurting again. I think he has more upside than the other three but seems to be on the verge of being run out of town. Liriano has looked promising this winter and spring, but he’s still a headcase and hasn’t really been right since his UCL popped in 2006. Baker has had shoulder problems, and we all know Pavano’s story. I’m thinking the Twins are done for if they lose any more than one starting pitcher to injury. The next wave of starting pitching prospects seems to be just reaching AA, so it will probably be another year or two until they are viable contingency plans.
And then there is the whole outfield situation. Does anyone want to imagine a season where Span goes down for the year in April? If spring training means anything, Ben Revere would be next in line as a legitimate center fielder. He hasn’t even played a single game in AA yet. Jacques Jones might be their ace in the hole, but I don’t think he can even come close to his 2007 numbers anymore. Right now, I think only Danny Valencia and Wilson Ramos can provide any kind of legitimate insurance for a play-off hopeful Twins. But if Ramos is called up to start, that means Joe Mauer is gone. Danny Valencia could probably hold his own as a starter, but luckily they have Harris AND Punto for third base. Those two are pretty much Minnesota’s last line of defense – I think they are really the only players on the roster who would be able to be an adequate full time starter. If Casilla reverts back to ‘First Half 2008 Casilla’, then great. But I’m not counting on it, and neither should the Twins.
As for the bullpen: Slama and Delaney are now a phone call away if the Twins need an impact arm. I don’t expect them to close, but I think they can give some above average innings in some tight spots. Perkins has also pitched decently out of the ‘pen before, and is left handed. Not to mention the AAA starters I mentioned earlier. And if they are dipping much below Slama, Delaney, Mahay, and Perkins, it’s probably safe to say no team could survive with a bullpen decimated that badly. Honestly, I’d trust Swarzak and Manship a lot more in short relief than I would starting.
Some people view any player that is ‘replacement level’ to be adequate depth. However, serious contenders need something better. If you look at many of the good teams from 2008 or 2009, their injury replacements were often prospects that projected to be major league starters. For example:the Yankees had Phil Hughes ready to slide into the rotation (man, the Yankees were pretty lucky on the injury front last season); Boston had Clay Buchholz waiting in the wings; The Rays had Reid Brignac; Colby Rasmus gave the Cardinals a comfortable back up option.
I’m not saying the Twins need to have all of their top prospects ready to contribute yesterday. I just think they might be in a little trouble if the injury bug hits in 2010.
Twins News one year ago today: Perkins rock solid as Twins beat Rays
Ah, yes. Wasn’t Glen Perkins good last year at one point? Boy, that escalated quickly… I mean, that really got out of hand fast.
The Rest
With Spring Training winding down (or gearing up, really), there are a couple roster spots left open:
- Fifth Starter
- Two bullpen slots (with Nathan out)
- Back-up Catcher
- Last bench spot
1 – Fifth Starter: As for the fifth starter, I think Francisco Liriano pretty much has the position locked up. I think I saw he had a 16/1 K/BB ratio in 10 spring innings, or something crazy like that. If “The Franchise” is really back to stay, I think the Twins are definitely the team to beat in the Central. Sure, the White Sox’s starting five are nasty, and the Tigers are hording young fire-ballers, but I think the Twins offer the most balanced attack. (I just realized how few batters the starting rotation is going to walk this season, even with Liriano’s potentially erratic fastball. Sick) Winner – Francisco Liriano
2- Bullpen: I’m counting two bullpen spots open right now since it seems the jury is still out on Neshek. His numbers so far this spring look pretty good, but it sounds like his velocity might be down a bit still and he’ll need a stint in extended spring training or AAA to work on arm strength. Personally, I’m hoping he’ll be in Rochester so I’ll get to see him pitch, but I bet he’s hopping to stay down where it’s warm.
Personally, I take Perkins and Anthony Slama up north with me. If Perkins is heathly, he’s a pretty decent pitcher. If he could miss a few more bats, I think he’d be a very useful second lefty out of the ‘pen. It would also 1) Be a goodwill gesture towards Glen and 2) showcase him at the MLB level for a trade. I’m pretty sure he’ll be a bit disgruntled if his final option year is used, and angry minor leaguers usually do not perform well enough to get traded.
Slama, surprisingly, is already 26-years old. Combine that with some excellent spring performances and a DISGUSTING 13.3 K/9 rate in the minors, I think he deserves a shot. Consider this: Joe Nathan had a 7.2 K/9 rate in the minors. Slama’s minor league K/BB ratio – 3.66. Joe Nathan’s? 1.58. I’m not saying Slama will immediately be equal to or better than Nathan, I just think the numbers predict that Slama will hold his own in the majors. (Disclaimer: the above comparison is misleading. Nathan was a failed starter in the minors, while Slama has been a closer the whole time. But still.)
Brian Duensing has shown he can pitch with the big boys, and he’s my pick for 6th starter down in AAA, or a replacement for Perkins if he’s traded. I think Manship and Swarzak should pitch every fifth day in the Red Wing’s starting rotation. The more starters, the better. I still have nightmares of the Red Wings’ 4-man pseudo-rotation from the end of last season. (They had the freshest bullpen arm starting every 5th day. It was a mess.) Winners – Anthony Slama, Glen Perkins
3-Mauer’s Caddy: I think most fans would like to see Wilson Ramos back up Joe Mauer until Jose Morales is healthy. Actually, I think Ron Gardenhire would like that too. However, as Patrick Reusse points out, the front office will most likely keep Ramos in AAA so that he can start every day and work on his defense. That leaves Gardy with a single option: Drew Butera. Rumor has it that Drew is an all-glove-no-bat catcher (and I guess pretty cute as well). What scares me though, besides his painful batting average and the fact I called another man cute, is that there were some whispered concerns about Butera’s handling this spring. If he can’t catch and can’t hit, I’d almost rather have Brendan Harris don the gear instead. Winner – Drew Butera (by default)
4-The 25th Man: Here is where things get dicey for me. I’d hate to lose Casilla’s upside (if there is any left. Perhaps athleticism is a better word?) for nothing, since he’s out of options. On the other hand, I vomit in my mouth a little bit every time I try to picture Delmon Young, Michael Cuddyer or Jason Kubel in center. They just don’t have anyone on the 25 man roster to play center. Sure, they’ve been getting Punto and Casilla some innings out there, but I’d rather have someone who knows what they are doing manning on of the most difficult defensive positions. Jacques Jones is actually having a pretty nice spring and seems to be a great clubhouse guy and could probably play center. Ultimately, though, I do give the nod to Alexi. It sounded like Jones didn’t mind playing in AAA for a while, so the Twins can stash him there until they figure out what to do with Casilla, or if something terrible happens to Span. Winner – Alexi Casilla.
Obligatory Nick Punto Post
Happy Nick Punto Day!
I’m not going to write anything very long, but I’m going to share my opinion on The Puntz (pronounced ‘Poontz’). While it’s fun to poke fun at the guy, Punto has actually been and important member of the team over the past five/six years or so. He can play any infield position, and he plays them well. Now, with Carlos Gomez gone, he might now be the Twins only source of SportsCenter highlight-reel plays!
Offensively, it’s hard to look past his dismal 2007 season. If you do, though, you’d see a guy who tried to get on base any way he can. He walks a ton and sees an above average number of pitches per at-bat. I’m a big supporter of the theory that not making an out is the most important job of any batter. The Puntz definitely handles that part of the job well, power and batting average be damned.
If we see Nick Punto starting at third base and batting ninth this season (or until Valencia is ready), I’m totally okay with it.
Winter Thoughts
I’ve been meaning to post something for most of the winter, but I’ve just been too busy. Adjusting to the 9-to-5 grind while planning a wedding takes a lot out of you!
Anyways, I guess I have a bit to write about. First things first: Joe Mauer. I started to type up a post about how a large Mauer contract might not be good for the Twins, and how they might be able to put together a better team overall by spending that money on other players. But then I became too depressed and didn’t finish it (actually, I just ran out of time and forgot about it). As of right now, it sounds like Joe and his agent are in deep talks with Bill Smith and something will be finalized before spring training starts. Sure, it might end up being a lot of years for a catcher, but I think Joe Mauer is special enough to warrant it.
And then we have the infield situation. As of right now, second base will be manned by Punto/Casilla and third base will be covered by Harris/Punto. Prospect Danny Valencia is rumored to be close to MLB ready, and we could see him after the all-star break. I’m not so sure I’m as high on him as other fans are: 1) his defense seems to be average-to-good, but reports are conflicting 2) He has terrible plate discipline in AAA and strikes out a bit. I fear that will translate to a dismal MLB hitting line. However, there isn’t much out there that constitutes as a long term fix for the position. Had the Twins been able to get Kevin Kouzmanoff from the Padres (he’s since been traded to the A’s), he could had been a decent solution. The more I think about it though, he seems to have a pretty similar skill set to Valencia, and is more expensive. For now, I’m okay with giving Harris a shot at starting. He’s not a terrible hitter and might benefit from regular at bats.
At second, the Twins have been tied to free agent Orlando Hudson. I’m an advocate of a short-term deal with him. He’s getting a little long in the tooth, but we have Nick Punto ready to go in case something happens to Hudson. If the Twins do sign Orlando, however, that would probably mean Casilla is as good as gone. Casilla had some great minor league numbers up to and including the AA level. However, something has been lost in translation from AA to AAA and the majors. It’s sad to see raw talent like that not pan out.
Francisco Liriano. I call him “Franchise” when he’s doing well, and “‘Cisco” when he’s not. He’s been ‘Cisco for a while now, but that could change this season. Reports were coming out of the Dominican Republic that he was “throwing the living fire out of the ball” (thanks Gardy). I’m usually pretty skeptical of third hand evaluations like that (wasn’t he throwing in the mid-90′s before last season too?!?!) but many other bloggers watched the championship game in which he pitched and the consensus is that his monster slider is back. I’m cautiously optimistic, but how awesome would it be to have Franchise back to, or near, 2006 form? Yes Please.
Getting Ready for 2010: First Base
Continuing my roster planning for the 2010 season, I’ll be talking about first base today. Again, this is a pretty easy one.
Starter: Justin Morenau
The Canadian Iron Man should be starting at sack number one next year for the Twins. He hits for average and power and as been slowly adding patience to his arsenal. In his MVP year he walked 53 times, 64 the next season, and 76 last year. This year he’s at 64 walks already. He’s also having a year similar (or maybe even better) than his MVP season, perhaps because of Kubel and Cuddyer behind him (and both are healthy). There really isn’t much to say: the man won an MVP award. He starts.
I’m not going to talk about back-up options yet since I’m saving that for when I cover the bench positions. So far this year we’ve seen Cuddyer, Harris and Buscher getting starts at first and I’ve personally seen Cuddyer make a few nice plays. Considering the 2009 backups are available for 2010, I’d say the Twins are set for this position.
Getting Ready for 2010: Catcher
Even though the Tigers and White Sox are nice enough (or cruel enough) to let the Twins’ playoff dreams linger, there is no way this club is a playoff caliber team. Say the Sox and Tigers tank the rest of the season: what are the pitching match-ups for the ALDS? Baker vs. Sabathia, Pavano vs. Burnett, Blackburn vs. Chamberlain? No thanks. I could talk about this season’s playoff chase, or how the Twins can improve themselves this year, but I think talking about next season would be a better use of energy. The only thing really worth blogging about in 2009 is Joe Mauer, but I’m going to wait a little longer before writing my blog entry that will crown him Albert Pujols Jr.
The 2010 season will be an interesting one for the Twins; they are opening a new ballpark and will need to decide what to do with the best catcher in the league. Oh yeah, they also need to decide who is going to accompany Justin Morneau in the infield. Right now the only ‘locks’ are Nick Punto and Alexi Casilla (typing that just caused chills down my spine) with third base being a question mark. And they currently have 17 outfielders that need consistent playing time. I’m going to go through each position and see if I can piece together a roster that sucks a little less than the 2009 Twins.
Catcher:
Starter: Joe Mauer
I’m going to start with an easy one. Joe Mauer. Done.
Assuming he doesn’t come down with another freaky injury, Joe Mauer will be the starting Catcher for the Minnesota Twins in 2010. Does anyone else get excited thinking about Joe winning four straight batting titles? Or two straight MVPs? Even if he doesn’t have a season as incredible as 2009, he will still be one of the best hitting catchers in the league. We can safely say that the Twins do not have a hole at this position for 2010.
Back-up: Jose Morales
Sorry Mike Redmond but you’re done. I really like Redmond but I don’t think he can cut it anymore. If he did manage get his average back over .300, he’d still be a defensive liability because of his age. Morales is young and still learning the position, with room for improvement. He’s also a switch hitter that can hit for average: no need to worry about match-ups when Joe needs a day off. He seemed to do okay with inconsistent playing time so he’ll probably be fine in a back-up role. However, the Twins could also think outside the box and trade him to a team that needs a young starting catcher and sign a veteran backstop instead. (Someone a little younger than Redmond maybe?) I like the kid though, so I say we keep him. If he really is a .300-ish hitter, he’d be good insurance if Mauer ever goes down (knock on wood!!).
My next entry will cover first base. Another tough one!