The Rest
With Spring Training winding down (or gearing up, really), there are a couple roster spots left open:
- Fifth Starter
- Two bullpen slots (with Nathan out)
- Back-up Catcher
- Last bench spot
1 – Fifth Starter: As for the fifth starter, I think Francisco Liriano pretty much has the position locked up. I think I saw he had a 16/1 K/BB ratio in 10 spring innings, or something crazy like that. If “The Franchise” is really back to stay, I think the Twins are definitely the team to beat in the Central. Sure, the White Sox’s starting five are nasty, and the Tigers are hording young fire-ballers, but I think the Twins offer the most balanced attack. (I just realized how few batters the starting rotation is going to walk this season, even with Liriano’s potentially erratic fastball. Sick) Winner – Francisco Liriano
2- Bullpen: I’m counting two bullpen spots open right now since it seems the jury is still out on Neshek. His numbers so far this spring look pretty good, but it sounds like his velocity might be down a bit still and he’ll need a stint in extended spring training or AAA to work on arm strength. Personally, I’m hoping he’ll be in Rochester so I’ll get to see him pitch, but I bet he’s hopping to stay down where it’s warm.
Personally, I take Perkins and Anthony Slama up north with me. If Perkins is heathly, he’s a pretty decent pitcher. If he could miss a few more bats, I think he’d be a very useful second lefty out of the ‘pen. It would also 1) Be a goodwill gesture towards Glen and 2) showcase him at the MLB level for a trade. I’m pretty sure he’ll be a bit disgruntled if his final option year is used, and angry minor leaguers usually do not perform well enough to get traded.
Slama, surprisingly, is already 26-years old. Combine that with some excellent spring performances and a DISGUSTING 13.3 K/9 rate in the minors, I think he deserves a shot. Consider this: Joe Nathan had a 7.2 K/9 rate in the minors. Slama’s minor league K/BB ratio – 3.66. Joe Nathan’s? 1.58. I’m not saying Slama will immediately be equal to or better than Nathan, I just think the numbers predict that Slama will hold his own in the majors. (Disclaimer: the above comparison is misleading. Nathan was a failed starter in the minors, while Slama has been a closer the whole time. But still.)
Brian Duensing has shown he can pitch with the big boys, and he’s my pick for 6th starter down in AAA, or a replacement for Perkins if he’s traded. I think Manship and Swarzak should pitch every fifth day in the Red Wing’s starting rotation. The more starters, the better. I still have nightmares of the Red Wings’ 4-man pseudo-rotation from the end of last season. (They had the freshest bullpen arm starting every 5th day. It was a mess.) Winners – Anthony Slama, Glen Perkins
3-Mauer’s Caddy: I think most fans would like to see Wilson Ramos back up Joe Mauer until Jose Morales is healthy. Actually, I think Ron Gardenhire would like that too. However, as Patrick Reusse points out, the front office will most likely keep Ramos in AAA so that he can start every day and work on his defense. That leaves Gardy with a single option: Drew Butera. Rumor has it that Drew is an all-glove-no-bat catcher (and I guess pretty cute as well). What scares me though, besides his painful batting average and the fact I called another man cute, is that there were some whispered concerns about Butera’s handling this spring. If he can’t catch and can’t hit, I’d almost rather have Brendan Harris don the gear instead. Winner – Drew Butera (by default)
4-The 25th Man: Here is where things get dicey for me. I’d hate to lose Casilla’s upside (if there is any left. Perhaps athleticism is a better word?) for nothing, since he’s out of options. On the other hand, I vomit in my mouth a little bit every time I try to picture Delmon Young, Michael Cuddyer or Jason Kubel in center. They just don’t have anyone on the 25 man roster to play center. Sure, they’ve been getting Punto and Casilla some innings out there, but I’d rather have someone who knows what they are doing manning on of the most difficult defensive positions. Jacques Jones is actually having a pretty nice spring and seems to be a great clubhouse guy and could probably play center. Ultimately, though, I do give the nod to Alexi. It sounded like Jones didn’t mind playing in AAA for a while, so the Twins can stash him there until they figure out what to do with Casilla, or if something terrible happens to Span. Winner – Alexi Casilla.
The Joe Mauer Era
And Bill Smith said, Let there be Mauer: and there was Mauer.
And Bill Smith saw the Mauer, that it was good: and Bill Smith divided the Mauer from the AL East.
It has happened. The Twins have extended Joe Mauer. I’m not sure of the exact terms of the deal, but I do know that there is a no-trade clause and that the deal spans eight years and nets Joe about $184 million dollars.
I want to start off by saying that I’m happy that Joe stayed in Minnesota. He’s one of my favorite players and one of the best hitters in the game. With this club having the talent (if Liriano can be an Ace again…) to make a convincing playoff push over the next couple of seasons, it will definitely be nice to have Joe around.
On the other hand, his large contract could hurt the team. However, I think it will only hurt the team if he’s injured or not performing at 100% capacity. Even he only averages 75% of his 2009 production over his entire contract he’s still a Gold Glove winning catcher hitting: .274/.333/.440 with 189 HR, 648 RBI and 202 2B. And say he retires after his deal is up, and he’s averaged 75% of his MVP year? Here are his career numbers:
15 seasons
.292 AVG
2,131 Hits
1,045 RBI
261 HR
360 2B
~5 Gold Gloves (estimate out of thin air)
Which pretty much would make him Mike Piazza with less power, but better defense:
16 seasons
.308 AVG
2,127 Hits
1,335 RBI
427 HR
344 2B
0 Gold Gloves
Since Mauer is 26 and right in the middle of his prime years, I’m not entirely convinced that 3/4 2009 Mauer is his career ceiling. (Edit: Indeed, TT over at Granny Baseball speculates his ceiling could be Babe Ruth caliber. I don’t know if I would go that far, but who can say he can’t be better than he was in 2009? After all, he was coming off of a serious back injury that limited him to almost zero off-season work and training.) Sure, he might not be worth $23 million dollars post-2015, but i think the play-off runs, .400 chases, and general awesomeness he’ll bring to the Twins will be well worth the price tag.
Winter Thoughts
I’ve been meaning to post something for most of the winter, but I’ve just been too busy. Adjusting to the 9-to-5 grind while planning a wedding takes a lot out of you!
Anyways, I guess I have a bit to write about. First things first: Joe Mauer. I started to type up a post about how a large Mauer contract might not be good for the Twins, and how they might be able to put together a better team overall by spending that money on other players. But then I became too depressed and didn’t finish it (actually, I just ran out of time and forgot about it). As of right now, it sounds like Joe and his agent are in deep talks with Bill Smith and something will be finalized before spring training starts. Sure, it might end up being a lot of years for a catcher, but I think Joe Mauer is special enough to warrant it.
And then we have the infield situation. As of right now, second base will be manned by Punto/Casilla and third base will be covered by Harris/Punto. Prospect Danny Valencia is rumored to be close to MLB ready, and we could see him after the all-star break. I’m not so sure I’m as high on him as other fans are: 1) his defense seems to be average-to-good, but reports are conflicting 2) He has terrible plate discipline in AAA and strikes out a bit. I fear that will translate to a dismal MLB hitting line. However, there isn’t much out there that constitutes as a long term fix for the position. Had the Twins been able to get Kevin Kouzmanoff from the Padres (he’s since been traded to the A’s), he could had been a decent solution. The more I think about it though, he seems to have a pretty similar skill set to Valencia, and is more expensive. For now, I’m okay with giving Harris a shot at starting. He’s not a terrible hitter and might benefit from regular at bats.
At second, the Twins have been tied to free agent Orlando Hudson. I’m an advocate of a short-term deal with him. He’s getting a little long in the tooth, but we have Nick Punto ready to go in case something happens to Hudson. If the Twins do sign Orlando, however, that would probably mean Casilla is as good as gone. Casilla had some great minor league numbers up to and including the AA level. However, something has been lost in translation from AA to AAA and the majors. It’s sad to see raw talent like that not pan out.
Francisco Liriano. I call him “Franchise” when he’s doing well, and “‘Cisco” when he’s not. He’s been ‘Cisco for a while now, but that could change this season. Reports were coming out of the Dominican Republic that he was “throwing the living fire out of the ball” (thanks Gardy). I’m usually pretty skeptical of third hand evaluations like that (wasn’t he throwing in the mid-90′s before last season too?!?!) but many other bloggers watched the championship game in which he pitched and the consensus is that his monster slider is back. I’m cautiously optimistic, but how awesome would it be to have Franchise back to, or near, 2006 form? Yes Please.