WPA Heroes – Week 1
So I decided to track the Win Probability Added (WPA) for each of the Twin’s players during the week. If you’re not familiar with this statistic, here’s a decent explanation. Basically, each situation (ie. bottom of the 8th, game tied, two outs, runner on second) is assigned a win probability. Batters and pitchers gain (positive or negative) WPA values depending on how they perform in situations. A player comes up big in a critical situation? Their WPA goes up a lot. A batter strikes out with bases loaded in a tie game? Their WPA goes down a lot. At least I’m pretty sure that’s how it works. I’m pretty new to the stat, so I could be way off base. Regardless, I still find it neat.
Baseball-Reference.com keeps track of each player’s WPA for every game (logged in each game’s boxscore). I’m going to try to go through the box scores every week and find the Twins player who contributed the most (the clutchiest player?), and the player who had the lowest WPA value (the choker?)
WPA Hero of Week 1:
CL | Jon Rauch: +0.592
The Twin’s new closer had a great first week of the season, saving four games in four tries and putting up a nice 2.25 ERA. Of course, he’s no Joe Nathan – hitters batted .313 against Rauch in week one – but he’s been getting the job done. I guess this shows that teams don’t necessarily need to break the bank for a “lights out” closer. Then again, I’m sure I’ll be crying for Nathan after a couple of consecutive Rauch melt-downs.
WPA Dead Weight of Week 1:
2B | Orlando Hudson: -0.510
The top of the Twins line-up has gotten off to a bit of a slow start here in 2010. Not that I’m worried, though – I don’t expect Span and Hudson to struggle like this for long. To take the “glass-half-full” approach, if the Twins were able to win both series against two play-off hopeful teams with the line-up not firing on all cylinders, imagine the carnage that will result when all eight or nine guys are hitting well at the same time.
Everyone Else:
Guess which Twins batter accumulated the highest WPA in week one? Did you guess Joe Mauer? If you did, you’re wrong. It was none other than Nick Punto’s side-kick: Brendan Harris! Sure, he only hit .111 on the week, but his two-run homer against the Angels on April 8th was worth only slightly less than Mauer’s ENTIRE WEEK (0.228 vs 0.248). Justin Morneau actually owned the second highest WPA for batters (0.295), and Matt Guerrier’s 0.505 WPA looks spiffy. If Rauch and Guerrier can keep up their week 1 success, they will be a pretty effective back-end of the bullpen.
Twins News one year ago today: Twins offense strong but falls to Jays
I thought this news story was appropriate, considering the Crain-wreck in Minnesota this afternoon.
Runs!
I want to start off by thanking Topper from Curve For A Strike for the “Twins Bloggers: Get to Know ‘Em” piece he did for this blog. I’ve actually found a bunch of Twins blogs that I hadn’t heard of before by following Topper’s site. Many of those blogs are now in my daily RSS feed.
Since I’m now a working stiff, I was lame and fell asleep at 9:30 last night. Needless to say, it was a pleasant surprise this morning when I checked the score from last night and saw that the Twins CRUSHED the Angels. I could get used to a line-up that leads the league in home runs! The thing that gets me excited is that all but three of the home runs have come from somebody NOT named Mauer, Kubel, Morneau, or Cuddyer. If you think about it, the Twins could easily be 2-2 or 1-3 if the bottom of the order resembled years past. But it doesn’t!
Imagine if J.J. Hardy gets back to hitting 20+ home runs and Delmon lives up to his power potential? I mean, even if the bottom of the order can’t keep this up all season, Hudson, Kubel and Span cant be this bad for too much longer. And if the bottom of the order can stay hot when the big bats come alive? I think we’ll be seeing more 10 run games against play-off caliber teams. They might even win a game against the Yankees!!
Twins News one year ago today: Twins’ Gomez in growth process at plate
Does anyone miss Go-Go as much as I do? He wasn’t a great hitter (and his departure is probably why the bottom of the order is good this year) but he brought a ton of excitement and personality to the team. I’m hoping he has a breakout year with the Brewers.
Opening Day!
Well, that was a little bit of a let down. Baker was his normal terrible and wild early-season self, and the big bats were pretty quiet. Denard Span looked especially bad, with three strikeouts, but Joe Mauer also looked like he wasn’t his normal patient self. Hopefully it was all opening day nerves, and the boys will be back to normal soon.
On a positive note, Pat Neshek and Jesse Crain looked pretty good last night and both had wicked sliders working. It’ll be important for those two to keep up the good work with Nathan down and out. I see that Rauch was named the official Closer, and I’m okay with that. Pat Neshek might end up being the better choice once he’s 100%, but I think it’s a good idea to pick one guy to start as the closer. Everyone will know their role and it won’t really disrupt anyone’s preparation routines.
I was also impressed by Delmon Young. It was exciting to see him turn on an inside fastball and crush it to left field. Add in a little speed (infield single and stolen base) and not looking too goofy out in left field and it looks like we might be getting closer to the guy Bill Smith thought he traded for. I hope Gardy gives him a pretty long leash this season so that he can get his confidence back.
I also want to give a shout-out to my favorite ex-Twins: Garrett Jones and Carlos Gomez. Go-Go was 3-4 with a home run for the Brew Crew, and Jones mashes two homers for the Pirates (one which ended up in the Allegheny!)