Bullpen Reinforcements
It’s about time! The Twins acquired Jon Rauch and Ron Mahay from the Diamondback and Royals, respectively. While on the surface these don’t appear to be huge acquisitions, they do improve the overall quality of the bullpen: addition by subtraction, if you will. This means that two relievers from AAA are on their way out and I can’t really complain about that.
Rauch was had for a PTBNL, but I’m hoping it’s not a important prospect. He does have a team option for next year for a little under $3 million, so he might be returning in 2010 depending on how he does this season, and if he gets along with the rest of the team. He hasn’t exactly been a strike-out machine like you’d expect from someone who is pushing seven-foot-tall, but he has had decent control. He used to be a starter before injuries forced him into the bullpen; would the Twins do something crazy like convert him back into a starter? I doubt it, but that means the Twins are still looking for Starting Rotation help.
UPDATE: I just read that Philip Humber has been outrighted to Rochester to make room for Rauch on the 40-man roster.
Mahay is a 38-year-old veteran lefty and I’m not sure yet what the Twins gave up for him. I’m sure it’s not much since Mahay had been DFA’s by the Royals. Hopefully he will be used as a left-handed specialist since he has some pretty terrible numbers against right handed hitters this season. As a veteran in the last year of his contract, there is probably a zero percent chance of him being with the team next season. This is purely a rental.
Overall, depending on who was sent to Arizona for Rauch, I like these trades. Nothing flashy, just average players to give the team depth. One of the problems the Twins have had this year is that they have a group of excellent players on the roster but the front office has struggled to supply a competent supporting cast. It’s too bad this didn’t happen earlier in the season.
However, the Twins still need at least one more veteran starter in the rotation. It’s pretty alarming when the fourth and fifth starters are emergency call-ups from Rochester (especially when one isn’t really a starter yet, having only made four starts in the minors this year). Rumor has it that the Twins claimed Rich Harden and may have interest in Brad Penny. Harden would be really nice, but I’m not too keen on giving up Type A prospects to rent him for five starts, draft-pick compensation be damned. Only if they were somehow able to work out an extension with Harden would I give up substantial talent. Though, with his injury history, would it even be prudent to give up talent and extend him? Penny is an interesting option; he was a good pitcher with the Marlins in 2003 and with the Dodgers, but has had shoulder problems and has looked rusty this season. Penny would be another “addition by subtraction” since they’d get to bump one of the struggling youngsters from the rotation.
Here’s an evaluation of the two reliever’s possible contribution from The Tenth Inning Stretch: http://tenthinningstretch.blogspot.com/2009/08/how-does-john-rauch-fit-in-twins.html
Getting Ready for 2010: First Base
Continuing my roster planning for the 2010 season, I’ll be talking about first base today. Again, this is a pretty easy one.
Starter: Justin Morenau
The Canadian Iron Man should be starting at sack number one next year for the Twins. He hits for average and power and as been slowly adding patience to his arsenal. In his MVP year he walked 53 times, 64 the next season, and 76 last year. This year he’s at 64 walks already. He’s also having a year similar (or maybe even better) than his MVP season, perhaps because of Kubel and Cuddyer behind him (and both are healthy). There really isn’t much to say: the man won an MVP award. He starts.
I’m not going to talk about back-up options yet since I’m saving that for when I cover the bench positions. So far this year we’ve seen Cuddyer, Harris and Buscher getting starts at first and I’ve personally seen Cuddyer make a few nice plays. Considering the 2009 backups are available for 2010, I’d say the Twins are set for this position.
Rochester Red Wings – 8/25/09
I attended the Rochester Red Wings game last night and was treated to a 11-5 shellacking at the hands of the Norfolk Tides. (Rochester is the Twins AAA Affiliate, for those who did not know) Anthony Swarzak started the game and was hit hard the entire night. In the top of the second, the first six batters he faced reached base, with the first five scoring. If you just looked at a box score, it would appear that he made it through the other innings fairly quickly, only giving up one more run. However, most of the outs came on long fly balls to the warning track and sharply hit line drives right at people. I also noticed that his body language was decidedly negative, leading me to wonder if he’s ‘pouting’ over his demotion and lack of success in the Majors. I remember that he had that issue when he was in AA New Britain, but was very good and seemed focused after getting called up to AAA.
Due to the fact that the Wings were behind by a lot the whole game, I didn’t get to see Slama, Delaney or Morillo. Of anyone in the Rochester bullpen, those three guys have the potential to help out at the major league level in the immediate future. I’m hoping to catch another game or two before the end of the season, so I still might get a chance to see one of them pitch.
Getting Ready for 2010: Catcher
Even though the Tigers and White Sox are nice enough (or cruel enough) to let the Twins’ playoff dreams linger, there is no way this club is a playoff caliber team. Say the Sox and Tigers tank the rest of the season: what are the pitching match-ups for the ALDS? Baker vs. Sabathia, Pavano vs. Burnett, Blackburn vs. Chamberlain? No thanks. I could talk about this season’s playoff chase, or how the Twins can improve themselves this year, but I think talking about next season would be a better use of energy. The only thing really worth blogging about in 2009 is Joe Mauer, but I’m going to wait a little longer before writing my blog entry that will crown him Albert Pujols Jr.
The 2010 season will be an interesting one for the Twins; they are opening a new ballpark and will need to decide what to do with the best catcher in the league. Oh yeah, they also need to decide who is going to accompany Justin Morneau in the infield. Right now the only ‘locks’ are Nick Punto and Alexi Casilla (typing that just caused chills down my spine) with third base being a question mark. And they currently have 17 outfielders that need consistent playing time. I’m going to go through each position and see if I can piece together a roster that sucks a little less than the 2009 Twins.
Catcher:
Starter: Joe Mauer
I’m going to start with an easy one. Joe Mauer. Done.
Assuming he doesn’t come down with another freaky injury, Joe Mauer will be the starting Catcher for the Minnesota Twins in 2010. Does anyone else get excited thinking about Joe winning four straight batting titles? Or two straight MVPs? Even if he doesn’t have a season as incredible as 2009, he will still be one of the best hitting catchers in the league. We can safely say that the Twins do not have a hole at this position for 2010.
Back-up: Jose Morales
Sorry Mike Redmond but you’re done. I really like Redmond but I don’t think he can cut it anymore. If he did manage get his average back over .300, he’d still be a defensive liability because of his age. Morales is young and still learning the position, with room for improvement. He’s also a switch hitter that can hit for average: no need to worry about match-ups when Joe needs a day off. He seemed to do okay with inconsistent playing time so he’ll probably be fine in a back-up role. However, the Twins could also think outside the box and trade him to a team that needs a young starting catcher and sign a veteran backstop instead. (Someone a little younger than Redmond maybe?) I like the kid though, so I say we keep him. If he really is a .300-ish hitter, he’d be good insurance if Mauer ever goes down (knock on wood!!).
My next entry will cover first base. Another tough one!
WTF?
I don’t get it: Why are the Twins’ starters sucking so much? The organization is famous for developing pitching talent but for some reason the talent has gone sour this year. All of it. I’ve seen several blogs analyzing the pitchers’ starts and they notice that release point inconsistencies tend to correlate with ineffectiveness. You’d think Rick Anderson would help the staff correct this, or help them with something. Whatever he’s doing, it’s not working and it’s starting to get a bit ridiculous.
I mean, I could understand if the starters were just scuffling a bit (maybe something like 5 runs over 5 1/3 innings) but they are getting absolutely shelled. If they don’t get it together by the end of this week, the grave the are digging may be too deep to crawl out of.
I’ve said before that I liked that the Twins went with the young rotation this year. However, it’s very apparent that the Twins don’t have an “Ace” pitcher to be a ‘stopper’ for losing streaks. They need a guy to go out after the young guys get shelled three games in a row and say “See, this is how you do”. Maybe Pavano can do that, but I don’t think he has it in him to really be the leader they need. Maybe the Twins can do something crazy this off season and sign a top of the rotation starter. I’m sure Mauer wouldn’t mind…
Another thing: where did all the fun go? It seems the players have been tense for a while now; Are they having some kind of personality conflicts? Nathan, Morneau and Mauer were complaining at the deadline. Redmond was hinting that Gardenhire is misusing him by starting him against righties (makes sense to me). Is this a sign that the players have lost respect for the front office or the coaching staff?
Nobody seems to be having a good time anymore, so I think it’s time for some naked batting practice.
Twins News Today:
Perkins lands on DL with tendinitis – I actually just found out about this and haven’t read the article yet. It’ll be interesting to see if Gardy throws Perkins under the bus for being a wimp.
One year ago today:
Perkins’ gem vaults Twins back into first – For some reason I don’t think we’ll be seeing this headline in 2009…
Update:
Just read La Velle’s blog and some quotes from Blackburn really burned me up (no pun intended):
“Everything feels great. I think right now, my pitches are a little flat and up and we just have to figure out what it is.”
“Some sort of adjustment needs to be made”
“Something mechanically I have to deal with right now.”
Isn’t all of that in Rick Anderson’s job description?? If my performance at work was this terrible, I’d be scouring the classifieds.
Help on the Way?
The Twins recently added starting pitching Carl Pavano to their starting rotation, acquiring him from the Indians for a player-to-be-named-later. I wasn’t too thrilled when I first heard about it, but then again Pavano is only 33-years-old and can be good at times. Oh yeah, and he has dominated the White Sox and Tigers this year. For whatever reason our five young starters have regressed this year, causing the Twins to be 10th in the league in pitching. Maybe the front office knew what they were doing when they signed a veteran retreads… Hopefully the presence of Pavano will help take the pressure off some of the young guys. Based on his history with the Yanks, I don’t expect him to be a huge clubhouse leader or anything, but hopefully just having an extra steady arm in the rotation will help the team.
However, I don’t think one new pitcher is enough. The Twins are still going to need at least another starter, or another reliever (or both!) to be competitive this year. The pickings this time of year are slim, but I’m sure Bill Smith can find someone who will implode less often than Swarzak and Liriano have been. Idea: John Smoltz. I heard he was DFA’d by the Red Sox after eight starts. He hasn’t been terribly good this year, but looking at some of his number I think the Twins should give him a chance at an extended tryout. His K/9 and K/BB rate look pretty good to me, plus he has experience in the bullpen. I also thing he could provide the veteran leadership that Pavano probably isn’t capable of, not to mention his plethora of playoff experience. Perhaps he can even teach one of the young starters that nasty splitter that he has. (Side note: is it just me or do all the Twins pitchers pretty much have the same arsenal of pitches? It seems like the organization has a cookie-cutter pattern they use to develop their starters: Fastball, Curve/Slider, Change-up, Cutter/Sinker. Why don’t they have anyone that throws something neat like a splitter, or knuckle-curve, or fork-ball, or palm-ball, or screw-ball? I’m partially kidding, but partially serious as well…)
The rest of the season will depend on the pitching. The Twins finally have an offense that scores runs, now they just need to make sure they give up less runs than they score. Gardy seems to think that the front office is heavily shopping for pitching help. Hopefully he’s right.
Women and Children First…
I’m going to be honest: I think the Twins are done for. It’s a sad thing to waste the offensive performances Mauer, Morneau, Kubel and Cuddyer have turned in this season, but the team just doesn’t have the pitching to win. They don’t have the pitching to get to the playoffs, and even if by some miracle they do make it, they don’t have the pitching to go anywhere. They say “Anything can happen in a short Series”, but then again the ‘underdog’ team usually has at least one ‘Ace’ pitcher. Scott Baker is pitching well right now, but I’m not sure they can rely on him as an ace yet.
After Baker, nobody in the starting rotation is pitching well. Liriano is close to losing his job, Perkins is getting blown out at least once a week, and Blackburn has been experiencing a major market correction (and my Fantasy Baseball team felt the brunt of that!). Swarzak has been okay at times, but he really can’t be anything more than a 5th starter this season, if ever. I was excited that the Twins were going with and “all youth” pitching strategy this year: I didn’t want them to sign a washed up veteran and take development time from one of the youngsters. However, it now looks like that might have been a mistake, especially with Slowey injured. Right now it seems like every game there is a chance for an implosion on the mound (except for Baker’s games, maybe). How nice would it be to send a veteran out there after getting blown out by Anaheim over the weekend, knowing that he’ll go seven or eight innings, giving up three or four runs?
As nice as a steady veteran like Doug Davis or Jon Garland, it still wouldn’t help at all in the post season. I believe that a team needs at least a strong 1-2 punch in a short series (ideally a strong 1 -3). The Twins maybe have a number one in Baker, but after that it seems to be a crap shoot.
And don’t even get me started about the bullpen. Complete and utter mess that is pretty much no longer fixable unless internal options pan out.
I hate to throw in the towel while hoisting up the white flag while prodding the fat lady to sing, but unless 3-4 guys on the pitching staff take their game to the next level, the Twins are dead in the water.