Roster Announced
And there you have it. Looks good to me. The only bad news is that I won’t be able to see Pat Neshek pitch for Rochester in April, but I’m happy with him helping the parent club too. I DO get to see Ramos, however. While it would have been neat to see what he can do at the major league level, it probably IS better for his development if he starts some games in the minors.
To tie in with my post about depth yesterday, I’d actually like to see the Twins hang on to Ramos for as long as they can keep him on the cheap. Sure, they could trade him in a package for a starting pitcher, or even a new closer (but what a waste that would be), but I would definitely feel better if he were to stick around as a C/DH for three years. I’m betting they could also teach him to play first base so that he might be able to fill in for Morneau. Also, Kubel’s contract is up in a couple of years (2012, I think*) and it would be nice to have Ramos and Mauer split time at DH and catcher for four or five years if the Twins can’t afford to keep Kubel around. And if, God forbid, anything happens to Mauer, I think there will be less of an offensive drop-off from Mauer to Ramos than Mauer to Morales/Butera (eww).
*So the world ends when Kubel leaves the Twins? I guess that’s how it should be.
I do feel sorry for Glen Perkins – he must be extremely frustrated. He can’t really blame anyone but himself this spring and I think if he starts getting things together in Rochester he’ll either be traded to someone who has a major league roster spot, or he’ll be the first pitcher to get called up to the Twins.
Twins News one year ago today: Morneau, Cuddyer among scratches
Morneau was having back issues before the season even started last season? That’s interesting, considering his recent issues. I thought it silly that people were still worried about Justin’s back. Not so silly anymore. (Though worrying about a guy who broke his back last season should never be silly)
The Weakest Link
Earlier today over at Fanatic Jack Talks Twins, I read that Jack believes that the bullpen will be the biggest weakness for the 2010 Twins. While I agree the situation is a little dicey without Joe Nathan, I don’t think the bullpen is the Twins biggest concern. In my opinion, lack of depth will end up being the team’s biggest problem in 2010. We’re a Slowey wrist flare-up away from Duensing, Manship or Swarzak pitching every five days. While I think those guys are decent stop gap options, or long relievers, I don’t really expect any of them to have a future in Minnesota’s starting rotation.
To compound the issue, Glen Perkins is currently hurting again. I think he has more upside than the other three but seems to be on the verge of being run out of town. Liriano has looked promising this winter and spring, but he’s still a headcase and hasn’t really been right since his UCL popped in 2006. Baker has had shoulder problems, and we all know Pavano’s story. I’m thinking the Twins are done for if they lose any more than one starting pitcher to injury. The next wave of starting pitching prospects seems to be just reaching AA, so it will probably be another year or two until they are viable contingency plans.
And then there is the whole outfield situation. Does anyone want to imagine a season where Span goes down for the year in April? If spring training means anything, Ben Revere would be next in line as a legitimate center fielder. He hasn’t even played a single game in AA yet. Jacques Jones might be their ace in the hole, but I don’t think he can even come close to his 2007 numbers anymore. Right now, I think only Danny Valencia and Wilson Ramos can provide any kind of legitimate insurance for a play-off hopeful Twins. But if Ramos is called up to start, that means Joe Mauer is gone. Danny Valencia could probably hold his own as a starter, but luckily they have Harris AND Punto for third base. Those two are pretty much Minnesota’s last line of defense – I think they are really the only players on the roster who would be able to be an adequate full time starter. If Casilla reverts back to ‘First Half 2008 Casilla’, then great. But I’m not counting on it, and neither should the Twins.
As for the bullpen: Slama and Delaney are now a phone call away if the Twins need an impact arm. I don’t expect them to close, but I think they can give some above average innings in some tight spots. Perkins has also pitched decently out of the ‘pen before, and is left handed. Not to mention the AAA starters I mentioned earlier. And if they are dipping much below Slama, Delaney, Mahay, and Perkins, it’s probably safe to say no team could survive with a bullpen decimated that badly. Honestly, I’d trust Swarzak and Manship a lot more in short relief than I would starting.
Some people view any player that is ‘replacement level’ to be adequate depth. However, serious contenders need something better. If you look at many of the good teams from 2008 or 2009, their injury replacements were often prospects that projected to be major league starters. For example:the Yankees had Phil Hughes ready to slide into the rotation (man, the Yankees were pretty lucky on the injury front last season); Boston had Clay Buchholz waiting in the wings; The Rays had Reid Brignac; Colby Rasmus gave the Cardinals a comfortable back up option.
I’m not saying the Twins need to have all of their top prospects ready to contribute yesterday. I just think they might be in a little trouble if the injury bug hits in 2010.
Twins News one year ago today: Perkins rock solid as Twins beat Rays
Ah, yes. Wasn’t Glen Perkins good last year at one point? Boy, that escalated quickly… I mean, that really got out of hand fast.
Fantasy Baseball Interlude
Not that anyone cares, but I’m going to post my two fantasy baseball drafts and my thoughts on how they went. The first league is a mixed 5X5 rotisserie league with a snake draft, and the second league is an AL Only keeper league with an auction.
Here’s how the 29 round snake draft went for me in the mixed league. I’ve only been doing this the past couple of seasons, so my drafting skills are a little wanting. I tried to go off of spread sheets (by positions) instead of using the native player ranking tools (we use CBS Sports). Anyways, here is team RGP:
Round 1: Joe Mauer, C
Round 2: Troy Tulowitzki, SS
Round 3: Jacoby Ellsbury, OF
Round 4: Chris Carpenter, SP
Round 5: Adam Lind, OF
Round 6: Joey Votto, 1B
Round 7: Josh Johnson, SP
Round 8: Aramis Ramirez, 3B
Round 9: Jayson Werth, OF
Round 10: Clayton Kershaw, SP
Round 11: Wandy Rodriguez, SP
Round 12: Torii Hunter, OF
Round 13: Roy Oswalt, SP
Round 14: J.A. Happ, SP
Round 15: Francisco Liriano, SP
Round 16: Julio Borbon, OF
Round 17: Howard Kendrick, 2B
Round 18: Shaun Marcum, SP
Round 19: Ryan Ludwick, OF
Round 20: Brian Matusz, SP
Round 21: Placido Polanco, MI
Round 22: Todd Helton, CI
Round 23: Wade Davis, SP
Round 24: Kyle Blanks, OF
Round 25: Jason Frasor, RP/CL
Round 26: Chris B. Young, OF
Round 27: Alberto Callaspo, MI
Round 28: Ivan Rodriguez, C
Round 29: Conor Jackson, OF
I think I got lucky with Pudge there in round 28. He’s not terribly good, but he’s a former all-star and enough of a veteran that he won’t sink the ship. Honestly, I forgot to take a second catcher until the draft was pretty much over.
You’ll also notice that I only took one reliever with Saves potential. This was intentional since a few teams in my league effectively punt the Saves category and draft all starting pitchers to wrack up wins and strikeouts. I like to grab at least one guy lower down who can net me some cheap saves so I can get ahead of the no-close teams and enjoy some free points. These strategy also allows one guy to draft five top closers and some good starters, which usually puts him in good position for ERA and WHIP assuming he meets the innings pitched requirement.
The second league I’m in is much more “hard core” – they’ve been playing since 1989 (when I was two years old). It was my first experience with an auction and I may have been a little shy about going toe-to-toe in bidding wars for top talent. We get a $260 draft salary cap and I think I did okay considering it was my first time and I’ve never had to balance “salaries” before. We also had a three round minor league snake-style draft. I should also mention that I was one of two new teams to join the league, so we had an expansion draft a few weeks ago. Here is team RGP (2):
Batters:
Johnson, Rob C SEA – $0 (Injury replacement)
Suzuki, Kurt C OAK – $13 (Expansion)
Johnson, Nick 1B NYY – $23
Getz, Chris 2B KC – $2
Inge, Brandon 3B DET – $6
Scutaro, Marco SS BOS – $10 (Expansion)
Pedroia, Dustin 2B BOS – $16
Konerko, Paul 1B CHW – $19
Brantley, Michael CF CLE – $8
Byrnes, Eric LF SEA – $1
Cameron, Mike CF BOS – $12
Drew, J.D. RF BOS – $8 (Expansion)
Scott, Luke LF BAL – $10 (Expansion)
Blalock, Hank DH TB – $4
Pitchers:
Frasor, Jason RP TOR – $11
Lackey, John SP BOS – $14 (Expansion)
Liriano, Francisco SP MIN (Expansion)
Peavy, Jake SP CHW – $24 (Expansion)
Pineiro, Joel SP ANA – $6
Rzepczynski, Marc SP TOR – $4
Sabathia, CC SP NYY – $37 (Expansion)
Thornton, Matt RP CHW – $12
Willis, Dontrelle SP DET – $1
DL:
Morales, Jose C MIN – $1
Minors:
Ramos, Wilson C MIN
Saunders, Michael LF SEA
Drabek, Kyle SP TOR
I think I spent a little too much on pitching, but the numbers are a little skewed by Matt Thornton. He was the best pitcher left on the board and it was my last opening. I had $16 left while the other teams that needed a pitcher had $4 and $11. Thornton always strikes out a ton of guys, and has the potential to save some games. I’m testing out my other league’s strategy of punting saves, but it might not work out as well since we don’t count WHIP in this league.
I have a feeling this will be a bit of a learning experience for me this year. I’ll probably stick around next season and I’ll work on building up a good core to keep from year to year.
Okay, enough nerd talk. Your regular programming will resume shortly!
The Rest
With Spring Training winding down (or gearing up, really), there are a couple roster spots left open:
- Fifth Starter
- Two bullpen slots (with Nathan out)
- Back-up Catcher
- Last bench spot
1 – Fifth Starter: As for the fifth starter, I think Francisco Liriano pretty much has the position locked up. I think I saw he had a 16/1 K/BB ratio in 10 spring innings, or something crazy like that. If “The Franchise” is really back to stay, I think the Twins are definitely the team to beat in the Central. Sure, the White Sox’s starting five are nasty, and the Tigers are hording young fire-ballers, but I think the Twins offer the most balanced attack. (I just realized how few batters the starting rotation is going to walk this season, even with Liriano’s potentially erratic fastball. Sick) Winner – Francisco Liriano
2- Bullpen: I’m counting two bullpen spots open right now since it seems the jury is still out on Neshek. His numbers so far this spring look pretty good, but it sounds like his velocity might be down a bit still and he’ll need a stint in extended spring training or AAA to work on arm strength. Personally, I’m hoping he’ll be in Rochester so I’ll get to see him pitch, but I bet he’s hopping to stay down where it’s warm.
Personally, I take Perkins and Anthony Slama up north with me. If Perkins is heathly, he’s a pretty decent pitcher. If he could miss a few more bats, I think he’d be a very useful second lefty out of the ‘pen. It would also 1) Be a goodwill gesture towards Glen and 2) showcase him at the MLB level for a trade. I’m pretty sure he’ll be a bit disgruntled if his final option year is used, and angry minor leaguers usually do not perform well enough to get traded.
Slama, surprisingly, is already 26-years old. Combine that with some excellent spring performances and a DISGUSTING 13.3 K/9 rate in the minors, I think he deserves a shot. Consider this: Joe Nathan had a 7.2 K/9 rate in the minors. Slama’s minor league K/BB ratio – 3.66. Joe Nathan’s? 1.58. I’m not saying Slama will immediately be equal to or better than Nathan, I just think the numbers predict that Slama will hold his own in the majors. (Disclaimer: the above comparison is misleading. Nathan was a failed starter in the minors, while Slama has been a closer the whole time. But still.)
Brian Duensing has shown he can pitch with the big boys, and he’s my pick for 6th starter down in AAA, or a replacement for Perkins if he’s traded. I think Manship and Swarzak should pitch every fifth day in the Red Wing’s starting rotation. The more starters, the better. I still have nightmares of the Red Wings’ 4-man pseudo-rotation from the end of last season. (They had the freshest bullpen arm starting every 5th day. It was a mess.) Winners – Anthony Slama, Glen Perkins
3-Mauer’s Caddy: I think most fans would like to see Wilson Ramos back up Joe Mauer until Jose Morales is healthy. Actually, I think Ron Gardenhire would like that too. However, as Patrick Reusse points out, the front office will most likely keep Ramos in AAA so that he can start every day and work on his defense. That leaves Gardy with a single option: Drew Butera. Rumor has it that Drew is an all-glove-no-bat catcher (and I guess pretty cute as well). What scares me though, besides his painful batting average and the fact I called another man cute, is that there were some whispered concerns about Butera’s handling this spring. If he can’t catch and can’t hit, I’d almost rather have Brendan Harris don the gear instead. Winner – Drew Butera (by default)
4-The 25th Man: Here is where things get dicey for me. I’d hate to lose Casilla’s upside (if there is any left. Perhaps athleticism is a better word?) for nothing, since he’s out of options. On the other hand, I vomit in my mouth a little bit every time I try to picture Delmon Young, Michael Cuddyer or Jason Kubel in center. They just don’t have anyone on the 25 man roster to play center. Sure, they’ve been getting Punto and Casilla some innings out there, but I’d rather have someone who knows what they are doing manning on of the most difficult defensive positions. Jacques Jones is actually having a pretty nice spring and seems to be a great clubhouse guy and could probably play center. Ultimately, though, I do give the nod to Alexi. It sounded like Jones didn’t mind playing in AAA for a while, so the Twins can stash him there until they figure out what to do with Casilla, or if something terrible happens to Span. Winner – Alexi Casilla.
The Joe Mauer Era
And Bill Smith said, Let there be Mauer: and there was Mauer.
And Bill Smith saw the Mauer, that it was good: and Bill Smith divided the Mauer from the AL East.
It has happened. The Twins have extended Joe Mauer. I’m not sure of the exact terms of the deal, but I do know that there is a no-trade clause and that the deal spans eight years and nets Joe about $184 million dollars.
I want to start off by saying that I’m happy that Joe stayed in Minnesota. He’s one of my favorite players and one of the best hitters in the game. With this club having the talent (if Liriano can be an Ace again…) to make a convincing playoff push over the next couple of seasons, it will definitely be nice to have Joe around.
On the other hand, his large contract could hurt the team. However, I think it will only hurt the team if he’s injured or not performing at 100% capacity. Even he only averages 75% of his 2009 production over his entire contract he’s still a Gold Glove winning catcher hitting: .274/.333/.440 with 189 HR, 648 RBI and 202 2B. And say he retires after his deal is up, and he’s averaged 75% of his MVP year? Here are his career numbers:
15 seasons
.292 AVG
2,131 Hits
1,045 RBI
261 HR
360 2B
~5 Gold Gloves (estimate out of thin air)
Which pretty much would make him Mike Piazza with less power, but better defense:
16 seasons
.308 AVG
2,127 Hits
1,335 RBI
427 HR
344 2B
0 Gold Gloves
Since Mauer is 26 and right in the middle of his prime years, I’m not entirely convinced that 3/4 2009 Mauer is his career ceiling. (Edit: Indeed, TT over at Granny Baseball speculates his ceiling could be Babe Ruth caliber. I don’t know if I would go that far, but who can say he can’t be better than he was in 2009? After all, he was coming off of a serious back injury that limited him to almost zero off-season work and training.) Sure, he might not be worth $23 million dollars post-2015, but i think the play-off runs, .400 chases, and general awesomeness he’ll bring to the Twins will be well worth the price tag.