Pavano
Each time I see this guy pitch in 2010, I like the signing more and more. We always joke that the Twins will stop at nothing to ensure that there is a veteran presence in the starting rotation (see: Hernandez, Livan). This time, though, I think they might have done it right. Sure, the fact that they payed three or four million more than they usually allot for their ‘veteran pitcher of the year’ probably has something to do with it, but I think it’ll be worth it.
I don’t see Pavano as a top of the rotation guy, but he’s looking a little more like “Florida Marlins Pavano” than “Bruised Buttocks Pavano”. He’ll have some games where nothing’s working and he gets hammered, but he will also turn out some games like the gem he pitched last night. (I think I just fell in love with Baseball-Reference’s box scores.)
Both my fiancee and my roommate are huge Yankees fans, so I’ve been conditioned to think of Pavano as a selfish, fragile piece of garbage (to put it nicely). In Minnesota, he’s been everything but. If I were to guess, I’d say he feels more comfortable with the Twins than he did in New York; it’s possible he just cracked under the pressure of being Yankee. I predict that he will have a solid year and come up big when we need him.
I have always believed that a team needs three pitchers to come up big for them in the post season for them to have any chance at the Series. Pavano and Blackburn might not have the best stuff of the staff, but I definitely think they have the mentality to be the Twins “Big Game” pitchers. Couple them with a confident and nasty Liriano, I think the rotation might be in good shape. Call me crazy, but I’d feel pretty confident going against the Yankees in the ALDS with a rotation of Pavano, Liriano, Blackburn. Baker and Slowey have great command and can miss some bats, but I’m not sure if they can be solid in the playoffs. They are both fly-ball heavy pitchers, and fly-balls tend to turn into home runs when facing the best teams in the league.
Twins News one year ago today: Mauer making strides in recovery for Twins
Imagine how many more games they can win with a full season of Mauer and middle infielders that can actually hit.
Coming Up Short
Bag ‘em and tag ‘em. Stick a fork in them. The fat lady is singing. No flying pigs in sight.
Losing to Eddie Bonine and the Tigers last night was pretty much a nail in the coffin. Even if the Twins win tonight, the Tigers can clinch by only winning one more game (or the Twins losing one more for that matter). The revelation isn’t too crushing though; I’ve readied myself for their elimination for the past month. They are missing 60% of their rotation, their starting third baseman, their All-Star first baseman and Matt Tolbert is in the starting line-up. If that isn’t a recipe for elimination, I don’t know what is. Respect has to be paid, though, considering the run the team made during September. Gardenhire was able to keep winning with a massively flawed team, Bill Smith turned a freaking disaster into just a massively flawed team, and the players themselves never gave up. Not to mention that Cuddyer guy mashing the ball while filling in admirably at first base.
And as much as the Santana and Tampa trades are still stinging, Bill Smith did a pretty good job this year. His moves were shrewd but also added value: Mahay has been a good LOOGY, Rauch has been good and will be here next year, Pavano has been a big part of the stretch run and Orlando Cabrera has been average at short while being a good motivator in the clubhouse. (O-Cab hasn’t been great, but he improved the black hole in the two-hole) The Front Office has also been more aggressive at handing out bonuses to young talent. They went above the slot recommendation to land first round draft pick Kyle Gibson, who had the option of going back to college to regain top 5 money he lost when a stress fracture in his arm shortened his Junior season. Max Kepler-Rozycki, a top Euopean prospect, was signed for nearly $800,000. Jorge Polanco, a shortstop from the Dominican Republic, was also signed. And the big one: Miguel Angel Sano was signed for a record $3.1 million dollars. If someone told me the Twins would be setting the record for a bonus paid to a international position player (Cubans excluded), I probably would have laughed in their face.
I like the aggression because I think it’s informed and calculated aggression. After seemingly getting walked all over in the Santana debacle, Smith went toe-to-toe with Scott Boras and was able to sign Joe Crede to a frugal, incentive laden deal that has been proven to be a wise move. Kyle Gibson dropped from Top 5 status to pick #22 because of a stress fracture in his arm and the Twins scooped him up after checking his medical records. They were even nice enough to realize that he had more talent than most #22 picks and gave him more money than recommended for his draft placement. This not only got him to sign instead of going back to college to raise his value, it most likely made a good first impression with Gibson: the Twins knew his value and didn’t try to screw him out of his bonus.
And then there is the Sano signing: from reading several articles it looks like the Twins were able to sign Miguel out from under the nose of the Pirates because the Twins were much better at forming a relationship with the Dominican’s family and agent. They also shelled out $3.1 million dollars for the kid, which is refreshing. I even read an article that quoted owner Jim Pohlad saying that he encouraged the team to go out and sign Sano. A filthy rich owner encouraging the Team to spend money? Yes please.
What does all this mean?
Is Bill Smith getting the hang of being a General Manager? I agree that the Santana trade hasn’t worked out, and that the Delmon trade has been a disaster, but maybe they were instrumental to his development as a GM. After seeing Delmon fizzle it’s possible that he is now more cautious with his gambles, making sure he considers the risks as well as the potential benefits.
Is the front office trying to impress Joe Mauer? It’s not secret that the Twins need to lock up Mauer this off-season before he hits the open market. What better way to keep him there than a new ballpark and spending money on top-tier talent?
If Smith will shell out money for prospects, is he going to pick up the Mauer bill for six-to-eight more year? God, I hope so.
Will Billy carry this aggression over into the off-season? I’m not sure how much money will be left after a potential Mauer extension, but could he possibly make some high-reward free agents? I don’t mean signing all the best free agents available, like the Yankees seem to do, but I can see them giving Harden a shot. He’s an injury risk (or injury guarantee) but he’s nasty when healthy. I can also see them going after Pavano for a couple year deal; he seems to fit in nicely with the club and isn’t too shabby a pitcher.
That’s why I love this team: good baseball, good people and always interesting.
Twins news a year ago:
Twins fall in AL Central tiebreaker – How fitting.
Help on the Way?
The Twins recently added starting pitching Carl Pavano to their starting rotation, acquiring him from the Indians for a player-to-be-named-later. I wasn’t too thrilled when I first heard about it, but then again Pavano is only 33-years-old and can be good at times. Oh yeah, and he has dominated the White Sox and Tigers this year. For whatever reason our five young starters have regressed this year, causing the Twins to be 10th in the league in pitching. Maybe the front office knew what they were doing when they signed a veteran retreads… Hopefully the presence of Pavano will help take the pressure off some of the young guys. Based on his history with the Yanks, I don’t expect him to be a huge clubhouse leader or anything, but hopefully just having an extra steady arm in the rotation will help the team.
However, I don’t think one new pitcher is enough. The Twins are still going to need at least another starter, or another reliever (or both!) to be competitive this year. The pickings this time of year are slim, but I’m sure Bill Smith can find someone who will implode less often than Swarzak and Liriano have been. Idea: John Smoltz. I heard he was DFA’d by the Red Sox after eight starts. He hasn’t been terribly good this year, but looking at some of his number I think the Twins should give him a chance at an extended tryout. His K/9 and K/BB rate look pretty good to me, plus he has experience in the bullpen. I also thing he could provide the veteran leadership that Pavano probably isn’t capable of, not to mention his plethora of playoff experience. Perhaps he can even teach one of the young starters that nasty splitter that he has. (Side note: is it just me or do all the Twins pitchers pretty much have the same arsenal of pitches? It seems like the organization has a cookie-cutter pattern they use to develop their starters: Fastball, Curve/Slider, Change-up, Cutter/Sinker. Why don’t they have anyone that throws something neat like a splitter, or knuckle-curve, or fork-ball, or palm-ball, or screw-ball? I’m partially kidding, but partially serious as well…)
The rest of the season will depend on the pitching. The Twins finally have an offense that scores runs, now they just need to make sure they give up less runs than they score. Gardy seems to think that the front office is heavily shopping for pitching help. Hopefully he’s right.