WPA Heroes – Week 1
So I decided to track the Win Probability Added (WPA) for each of the Twin’s players during the week. If you’re not familiar with this statistic, here’s a decent explanation. Basically, each situation (ie. bottom of the 8th, game tied, two outs, runner on second) is assigned a win probability. Batters and pitchers gain (positive or negative) WPA values depending on how they perform in situations. A player comes up big in a critical situation? Their WPA goes up a lot. A batter strikes out with bases loaded in a tie game? Their WPA goes down a lot. At least I’m pretty sure that’s how it works. I’m pretty new to the stat, so I could be way off base. Regardless, I still find it neat.
Baseball-Reference.com keeps track of each player’s WPA for every game (logged in each game’s boxscore). I’m going to try to go through the box scores every week and find the Twins player who contributed the most (the clutchiest player?), and the player who had the lowest WPA value (the choker?)
WPA Hero of Week 1:
CL | Jon Rauch: +0.592
The Twin’s new closer had a great first week of the season, saving four games in four tries and putting up a nice 2.25 ERA. Of course, he’s no Joe Nathan – hitters batted .313 against Rauch in week one – but he’s been getting the job done. I guess this shows that teams don’t necessarily need to break the bank for a “lights out” closer. Then again, I’m sure I’ll be crying for Nathan after a couple of consecutive Rauch melt-downs.
WPA Dead Weight of Week 1:
2B | Orlando Hudson: -0.510
The top of the Twins line-up has gotten off to a bit of a slow start here in 2010. Not that I’m worried, though – I don’t expect Span and Hudson to struggle like this for long. To take the “glass-half-full” approach, if the Twins were able to win both series against two play-off hopeful teams with the line-up not firing on all cylinders, imagine the carnage that will result when all eight or nine guys are hitting well at the same time.
Everyone Else:
Guess which Twins batter accumulated the highest WPA in week one? Did you guess Joe Mauer? If you did, you’re wrong. It was none other than Nick Punto’s side-kick: Brendan Harris! Sure, he only hit .111 on the week, but his two-run homer against the Angels on April 8th was worth only slightly less than Mauer’s ENTIRE WEEK (0.228 vs 0.248). Justin Morneau actually owned the second highest WPA for batters (0.295), and Matt Guerrier’s 0.505 WPA looks spiffy. If Rauch and Guerrier can keep up their week 1 success, they will be a pretty effective back-end of the bullpen.
Twins News one year ago today: Twins offense strong but falls to Jays
I thought this news story was appropriate, considering the Crain-wreck in Minnesota this afternoon.
Opening Day!
Well, that was a little bit of a let down. Baker was his normal terrible and wild early-season self, and the big bats were pretty quiet. Denard Span looked especially bad, with three strikeouts, but Joe Mauer also looked like he wasn’t his normal patient self. Hopefully it was all opening day nerves, and the boys will be back to normal soon.
On a positive note, Pat Neshek and Jesse Crain looked pretty good last night and both had wicked sliders working. It’ll be important for those two to keep up the good work with Nathan down and out. I see that Rauch was named the official Closer, and I’m okay with that. Pat Neshek might end up being the better choice once he’s 100%, but I think it’s a good idea to pick one guy to start as the closer. Everyone will know their role and it won’t really disrupt anyone’s preparation routines.
I was also impressed by Delmon Young. It was exciting to see him turn on an inside fastball and crush it to left field. Add in a little speed (infield single and stolen base) and not looking too goofy out in left field and it looks like we might be getting closer to the guy Bill Smith thought he traded for. I hope Gardy gives him a pretty long leash this season so that he can get his confidence back.
I also want to give a shout-out to my favorite ex-Twins: Garrett Jones and Carlos Gomez. Go-Go was 3-4 with a home run for the Brew Crew, and Jones mashes two homers for the Pirates (one which ended up in the Allegheny!)
Wow
That title just about covers how I feel: wow. As everyone knows by now, the Twins won the American League Central Pennant last night by beating the Detroit Tigers in 12 innings. Almost everyone came up big for the Twins, considering they used 12 position players and eight pitchers.
Scott Baker survived his trademark big inning to turn in a quality start; Jon Rauch continued to impress me with his late inning performances; Bobby Keppel is my new hero; Alexi Casilla (or Sexi Lexi, as I lovingly call him) was clutch for us AGAIN; GoGo made things happen; O-Cab came up big with a go ahead homer and a game saving double play; Punto took great at-bats and got himself on base; Kubel’s moon shot (or Kubes Shot, as I call it); Tolbert’s clutch game tying hit; Nathans fireman work; Mahay’s ownage of Granderson; Cuddy’s good at bats and good defense (for a right fielder, he’s pretty good at getting the tag down when he’s pulled up off the bag); Mauer being Mauer; Delmon scaring them into walking him; Crain, though he gave up a run, pitched well and had great stuff; oh man, I could keep going.
One thing that leaves a slightly sour taste in my mouth was the game had by home plate umpire Randy Marsh. He squeezed Matty G and Baker BAD: I counted 4-5 pitches that came in just below the waist and broke to about 3 inches above the knees, right in the center of the dish, called balls. Porcello was getting those, and Rodney’s pitches (even lower, I might add) were called strikes. I do have to say, though, Nathan did get a LOT of favorable calls which helped us greatly. However, the real source of the sourness was the missed “hit by pitch” call on Inge. Now, it just grazed his jersey and the bases were loaded: the umpire could have totally decided he wasn’t going to let the winning run score that way and that it was so close he could claim he missed it. I’m not saying that’s right, but it could have happened. More likely: it was so loud in the ‘Dome, he just couldn’t hear the hit. It happens, umps miss things like that, but I’m sure Tigers fans are still groaning about it today. And rightfully so.
Time to face the Yanks! With zero time to rest, the Comeback Twins must now find the energy to take on the monster that is the New York All-Star Tea… er.. Yankees. Sure, the Twins are 0-7 against them this year. Sure, the Yanks have the best offense money can buy. Sure, they also bought the two best pitchers available last winter. Who cares? This Twins team has been written off so many times, I can’t put anything past them anymore.
That being said, the pitching match-up isn’t very favorable: Duensing vs. Sabathia. We can only hope that Duensing can be craft enough to fool Yankees hitters who haven’t seen much of him and that Sabathia will continue to struggle in the playoffs. His TERRIBLE final start of the season either means he will have corrected his flaw and be tuned up for the post season, or that he’s fatigued and the Twins might be able to jump all over him. He has wrecked the Twins in the past, so we will have to see.
The Line-up for tonight’s game:
Span CF
Cabrera SS
Mauer C
Cuddyer 1B
Kubel RF
Young LF
Harris DH
Tolbert 3B
Punto 2B
I only have one problem with it: no Carlos Gomez. Jose Morales was schooled by Porcello last night (I think he swung and missed six times, striking out twice) so Harris will get the start instead. While that move by itself is rational and understandable, I would have rather seen Gomez in center, Span in left, Young in right and Kubel DHing. In my opinion, the benefit of having Gomez and Span in the outfield far outweighs the offensive bump obtained by having Harris DH. I shudder every time I think of Kubel and Young gimping and bumbling around at the corners. Gardy’s decisions have works so far, so LETS DO THIS!
I have to admit, it feels really weird to be here without Morneau in the line-up. It makes me a feel a little guilty: its pretty sad to see him sitting on the bench, unable to help his team. If the ‘Dome is going to crack the spine of our MVPs, maybe a couple rain outs will be tolerable after all.
Coming Up Short
Bag ‘em and tag ‘em. Stick a fork in them. The fat lady is singing. No flying pigs in sight.
Losing to Eddie Bonine and the Tigers last night was pretty much a nail in the coffin. Even if the Twins win tonight, the Tigers can clinch by only winning one more game (or the Twins losing one more for that matter). The revelation isn’t too crushing though; I’ve readied myself for their elimination for the past month. They are missing 60% of their rotation, their starting third baseman, their All-Star first baseman and Matt Tolbert is in the starting line-up. If that isn’t a recipe for elimination, I don’t know what is. Respect has to be paid, though, considering the run the team made during September. Gardenhire was able to keep winning with a massively flawed team, Bill Smith turned a freaking disaster into just a massively flawed team, and the players themselves never gave up. Not to mention that Cuddyer guy mashing the ball while filling in admirably at first base.
And as much as the Santana and Tampa trades are still stinging, Bill Smith did a pretty good job this year. His moves were shrewd but also added value: Mahay has been a good LOOGY, Rauch has been good and will be here next year, Pavano has been a big part of the stretch run and Orlando Cabrera has been average at short while being a good motivator in the clubhouse. (O-Cab hasn’t been great, but he improved the black hole in the two-hole) The Front Office has also been more aggressive at handing out bonuses to young talent. They went above the slot recommendation to land first round draft pick Kyle Gibson, who had the option of going back to college to regain top 5 money he lost when a stress fracture in his arm shortened his Junior season. Max Kepler-Rozycki, a top Euopean prospect, was signed for nearly $800,000. Jorge Polanco, a shortstop from the Dominican Republic, was also signed. And the big one: Miguel Angel Sano was signed for a record $3.1 million dollars. If someone told me the Twins would be setting the record for a bonus paid to a international position player (Cubans excluded), I probably would have laughed in their face.
I like the aggression because I think it’s informed and calculated aggression. After seemingly getting walked all over in the Santana debacle, Smith went toe-to-toe with Scott Boras and was able to sign Joe Crede to a frugal, incentive laden deal that has been proven to be a wise move. Kyle Gibson dropped from Top 5 status to pick #22 because of a stress fracture in his arm and the Twins scooped him up after checking his medical records. They were even nice enough to realize that he had more talent than most #22 picks and gave him more money than recommended for his draft placement. This not only got him to sign instead of going back to college to raise his value, it most likely made a good first impression with Gibson: the Twins knew his value and didn’t try to screw him out of his bonus.
And then there is the Sano signing: from reading several articles it looks like the Twins were able to sign Miguel out from under the nose of the Pirates because the Twins were much better at forming a relationship with the Dominican’s family and agent. They also shelled out $3.1 million dollars for the kid, which is refreshing. I even read an article that quoted owner Jim Pohlad saying that he encouraged the team to go out and sign Sano. A filthy rich owner encouraging the Team to spend money? Yes please.
What does all this mean?
Is Bill Smith getting the hang of being a General Manager? I agree that the Santana trade hasn’t worked out, and that the Delmon trade has been a disaster, but maybe they were instrumental to his development as a GM. After seeing Delmon fizzle it’s possible that he is now more cautious with his gambles, making sure he considers the risks as well as the potential benefits.
Is the front office trying to impress Joe Mauer? It’s not secret that the Twins need to lock up Mauer this off-season before he hits the open market. What better way to keep him there than a new ballpark and spending money on top-tier talent?
If Smith will shell out money for prospects, is he going to pick up the Mauer bill for six-to-eight more year? God, I hope so.
Will Billy carry this aggression over into the off-season? I’m not sure how much money will be left after a potential Mauer extension, but could he possibly make some high-reward free agents? I don’t mean signing all the best free agents available, like the Yankees seem to do, but I can see them giving Harden a shot. He’s an injury risk (or injury guarantee) but he’s nasty when healthy. I can also see them going after Pavano for a couple year deal; he seems to fit in nicely with the club and isn’t too shabby a pitcher.
That’s why I love this team: good baseball, good people and always interesting.
Twins news a year ago:
Twins fall in AL Central tiebreaker – How fitting.
Bullpen Reinforcements
It’s about time! The Twins acquired Jon Rauch and Ron Mahay from the Diamondback and Royals, respectively. While on the surface these don’t appear to be huge acquisitions, they do improve the overall quality of the bullpen: addition by subtraction, if you will. This means that two relievers from AAA are on their way out and I can’t really complain about that.
Rauch was had for a PTBNL, but I’m hoping it’s not a important prospect. He does have a team option for next year for a little under $3 million, so he might be returning in 2010 depending on how he does this season, and if he gets along with the rest of the team. He hasn’t exactly been a strike-out machine like you’d expect from someone who is pushing seven-foot-tall, but he has had decent control. He used to be a starter before injuries forced him into the bullpen; would the Twins do something crazy like convert him back into a starter? I doubt it, but that means the Twins are still looking for Starting Rotation help.
UPDATE: I just read that Philip Humber has been outrighted to Rochester to make room for Rauch on the 40-man roster.
Mahay is a 38-year-old veteran lefty and I’m not sure yet what the Twins gave up for him. I’m sure it’s not much since Mahay had been DFA’s by the Royals. Hopefully he will be used as a left-handed specialist since he has some pretty terrible numbers against right handed hitters this season. As a veteran in the last year of his contract, there is probably a zero percent chance of him being with the team next season. This is purely a rental.
Overall, depending on who was sent to Arizona for Rauch, I like these trades. Nothing flashy, just average players to give the team depth. One of the problems the Twins have had this year is that they have a group of excellent players on the roster but the front office has struggled to supply a competent supporting cast. It’s too bad this didn’t happen earlier in the season.
However, the Twins still need at least one more veteran starter in the rotation. It’s pretty alarming when the fourth and fifth starters are emergency call-ups from Rochester (especially when one isn’t really a starter yet, having only made four starts in the minors this year). Rumor has it that the Twins claimed Rich Harden and may have interest in Brad Penny. Harden would be really nice, but I’m not too keen on giving up Type A prospects to rent him for five starts, draft-pick compensation be damned. Only if they were somehow able to work out an extension with Harden would I give up substantial talent. Though, with his injury history, would it even be prudent to give up talent and extend him? Penny is an interesting option; he was a good pitcher with the Marlins in 2003 and with the Dodgers, but has had shoulder problems and has looked rusty this season. Penny would be another “addition by subtraction” since they’d get to bump one of the struggling youngsters from the rotation.
Here’s an evaluation of the two reliever’s possible contribution from The Tenth Inning Stretch: http://tenthinningstretch.blogspot.com/2009/08/how-does-john-rauch-fit-in-twins.html