Coming Up Short
Bag ‘em and tag ‘em. Stick a fork in them. The fat lady is singing. No flying pigs in sight.
Losing to Eddie Bonine and the Tigers last night was pretty much a nail in the coffin. Even if the Twins win tonight, the Tigers can clinch by only winning one more game (or the Twins losing one more for that matter). The revelation isn’t too crushing though; I’ve readied myself for their elimination for the past month. They are missing 60% of their rotation, their starting third baseman, their All-Star first baseman and Matt Tolbert is in the starting line-up. If that isn’t a recipe for elimination, I don’t know what is. Respect has to be paid, though, considering the run the team made during September. Gardenhire was able to keep winning with a massively flawed team, Bill Smith turned a freaking disaster into just a massively flawed team, and the players themselves never gave up. Not to mention that Cuddyer guy mashing the ball while filling in admirably at first base.
And as much as the Santana and Tampa trades are still stinging, Bill Smith did a pretty good job this year. His moves were shrewd but also added value: Mahay has been a good LOOGY, Rauch has been good and will be here next year, Pavano has been a big part of the stretch run and Orlando Cabrera has been average at short while being a good motivator in the clubhouse. (O-Cab hasn’t been great, but he improved the black hole in the two-hole) The Front Office has also been more aggressive at handing out bonuses to young talent. They went above the slot recommendation to land first round draft pick Kyle Gibson, who had the option of going back to college to regain top 5 money he lost when a stress fracture in his arm shortened his Junior season. Max Kepler-Rozycki, a top Euopean prospect, was signed for nearly $800,000. Jorge Polanco, a shortstop from the Dominican Republic, was also signed. And the big one: Miguel Angel Sano was signed for a record $3.1 million dollars. If someone told me the Twins would be setting the record for a bonus paid to a international position player (Cubans excluded), I probably would have laughed in their face.
I like the aggression because I think it’s informed and calculated aggression. After seemingly getting walked all over in the Santana debacle, Smith went toe-to-toe with Scott Boras and was able to sign Joe Crede to a frugal, incentive laden deal that has been proven to be a wise move. Kyle Gibson dropped from Top 5 status to pick #22 because of a stress fracture in his arm and the Twins scooped him up after checking his medical records. They were even nice enough to realize that he had more talent than most #22 picks and gave him more money than recommended for his draft placement. This not only got him to sign instead of going back to college to raise his value, it most likely made a good first impression with Gibson: the Twins knew his value and didn’t try to screw him out of his bonus.
And then there is the Sano signing: from reading several articles it looks like the Twins were able to sign Miguel out from under the nose of the Pirates because the Twins were much better at forming a relationship with the Dominican’s family and agent. They also shelled out $3.1 million dollars for the kid, which is refreshing. I even read an article that quoted owner Jim Pohlad saying that he encouraged the team to go out and sign Sano. A filthy rich owner encouraging the Team to spend money? Yes please.
What does all this mean?
Is Bill Smith getting the hang of being a General Manager? I agree that the Santana trade hasn’t worked out, and that the Delmon trade has been a disaster, but maybe they were instrumental to his development as a GM. After seeing Delmon fizzle it’s possible that he is now more cautious with his gambles, making sure he considers the risks as well as the potential benefits.
Is the front office trying to impress Joe Mauer? It’s not secret that the Twins need to lock up Mauer this off-season before he hits the open market. What better way to keep him there than a new ballpark and spending money on top-tier talent?
If Smith will shell out money for prospects, is he going to pick up the Mauer bill for six-to-eight more year? God, I hope so.
Will Billy carry this aggression over into the off-season? I’m not sure how much money will be left after a potential Mauer extension, but could he possibly make some high-reward free agents? I don’t mean signing all the best free agents available, like the Yankees seem to do, but I can see them giving Harden a shot. He’s an injury risk (or injury guarantee) but he’s nasty when healthy. I can also see them going after Pavano for a couple year deal; he seems to fit in nicely with the club and isn’t too shabby a pitcher.
That’s why I love this team: good baseball, good people and always interesting.
Twins news a year ago:
Twins fall in AL Central tiebreaker – How fitting.
Bullpen Reinforcements
It’s about time! The Twins acquired Jon Rauch and Ron Mahay from the Diamondback and Royals, respectively. While on the surface these don’t appear to be huge acquisitions, they do improve the overall quality of the bullpen: addition by subtraction, if you will. This means that two relievers from AAA are on their way out and I can’t really complain about that.
Rauch was had for a PTBNL, but I’m hoping it’s not a important prospect. He does have a team option for next year for a little under $3 million, so he might be returning in 2010 depending on how he does this season, and if he gets along with the rest of the team. He hasn’t exactly been a strike-out machine like you’d expect from someone who is pushing seven-foot-tall, but he has had decent control. He used to be a starter before injuries forced him into the bullpen; would the Twins do something crazy like convert him back into a starter? I doubt it, but that means the Twins are still looking for Starting Rotation help.
UPDATE: I just read that Philip Humber has been outrighted to Rochester to make room for Rauch on the 40-man roster.
Mahay is a 38-year-old veteran lefty and I’m not sure yet what the Twins gave up for him. I’m sure it’s not much since Mahay had been DFA’s by the Royals. Hopefully he will be used as a left-handed specialist since he has some pretty terrible numbers against right handed hitters this season. As a veteran in the last year of his contract, there is probably a zero percent chance of him being with the team next season. This is purely a rental.
Overall, depending on who was sent to Arizona for Rauch, I like these trades. Nothing flashy, just average players to give the team depth. One of the problems the Twins have had this year is that they have a group of excellent players on the roster but the front office has struggled to supply a competent supporting cast. It’s too bad this didn’t happen earlier in the season.
However, the Twins still need at least one more veteran starter in the rotation. It’s pretty alarming when the fourth and fifth starters are emergency call-ups from Rochester (especially when one isn’t really a starter yet, having only made four starts in the minors this year). Rumor has it that the Twins claimed Rich Harden and may have interest in Brad Penny. Harden would be really nice, but I’m not too keen on giving up Type A prospects to rent him for five starts, draft-pick compensation be damned. Only if they were somehow able to work out an extension with Harden would I give up substantial talent. Though, with his injury history, would it even be prudent to give up talent and extend him? Penny is an interesting option; he was a good pitcher with the Marlins in 2003 and with the Dodgers, but has had shoulder problems and has looked rusty this season. Penny would be another “addition by subtraction” since they’d get to bump one of the struggling youngsters from the rotation.
Here’s an evaluation of the two reliever’s possible contribution from The Tenth Inning Stretch: http://tenthinningstretch.blogspot.com/2009/08/how-does-john-rauch-fit-in-twins.html